Traders capitalize on high implied volatility pre-election, especially for assets like Bitcoin and gold, expecting normalization soon.
Meme assets like DJT may see post-election drops, driven by volatility declines and market makers adjusting delta positions.
Bitcoin’s volatility may continue rising post-election, while Ethereum and gold face resistance due to market maker hedging.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election results approach, financial markets are seeing a surge in trading strategies focused on selling volatility. This trend is notably evident in assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold (GLD), where traders are capitalizing on high implied volatility (IV) ahead of election outcomes. Besides, analysts predict that assets with significant volatility, especially memecoins and meme stocks, may experience notable corrections following the election.
https://twitter.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1854003844168253461 Selling the Truth: Election Day Strategy
The concept of “selling the truth” is common after major events, where the removal of uncertainty often triggers profit-taking or loss-limiting moves by institutional traders. Consequently, the prices of high-performing assets typically normalize post-event. With memecoins and meme stocks like DJT, this normalization is almost inevitable, driven by statistical arbitrage strategies and volatility crashes.
For instance, DJT’s 30-day at-the-money IV has spiked over 300%, reflecting extreme skew. Once the election uncertainty fades, market makers are likely to reduce delta positions, causing concentrated price shifts due to the lack of liquidity. Consequently, this creates unique trading opportunities as excessive implied volatility levels recede.
BTC and GLD: Controlled Volatility Decline Expected
In contrast to meme assets, Bitcoin and gold are expected to face controlled declines in volatility. Unlike memecoins, these assets display a return distribution closer to normal levels. Hence, both assets may stabilize sooner and are more likely to maintain upward momentum post-election.
Bitcoin, with its stronger price momentum, has more negative gamma, meaning its hedging activities drive stronger volatility responses. On the other hand, gold’s positive gamma dampens price gains, creating resistance during rises and stabilizing prices.
Ethereum (ETH) mirrors gold’s volatility characteristics, especially with the gamma peak concentrated around $2.5-$2.6k. Market makers’ selling pressure is anticipated to restrict ETH’s price growth, driven by weekly option hedging behavior.
Market Dynamics and Opportunity
Selling volatility appears favorable as market maker hedging controls price movements across assets. This approach provides limited price direction, making direct trades challenging. However, a deeply backwardated IV term structure suggests a rare opportunity to execute calendar trading.
By selling front-end vol and buying far-end vol, traders may capitalize on anticipated term structure normalization post-election. As election results are finalized, expect the IV term structure to gradually stabilize.
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