Betting markets show rising confidence in Trump, with Polymarket assigning him a 62% win probability ahead of the election.
Market reactions to a possible Trump victory have hit the dollar, with treasury yields dropping and the euro gaining on investor caution.
Bitcoin, Trump-linked stocks, and pro-crypto sentiments reflect rising volatility as investors brace for potential post-election impacts.
A Polymarket user named “walletmobile” placed a $10 million bet on Donald Trump winning the presidential election. If Trump emerges victorious, this user stands to win $16 million. Betting platforms are increasingly bullish on Trump's chances, even as polls indicate a tight race with Democrat candidate Kamala Harris. As polls close in just hours, markets show a clear preference for Trump.
https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1853799508934537458 Betting Odds Shift in Trump's Favor
Polymarket, a leading platform for election betting, reflects this trend, assigning Trump a 62% implied chance of victory. Conversely, Harris holds only 38%. Additionally, PredictIt, which recently favored Harris, has also flipped to show Trump as the frontrunner.
New York-based Kalshi provides Trump with a 59% probability of winning, while retail trading giant Robinhood offers a slightly lower estimate at 58%. Poll-based prediction models suggest the candidates remain in a dead heat, with their odds separated by a hair’s breadth.
Economic Implications and Market Reactions
On Monday, global markets adjusted their bets on Trump’s victory, leading to a weaker dollar. The dollar fell by 0.3% against major currencies, while the euro gained 0.5%. Treasuries advanced, reflecting investors' cautious optimism about the election outcome.
Notably, a recent poll by J Ann Selzer indicated unexpected support for Harris in Iowa. Market strategist Mitul Kotecha noted that a “Trump premium” had previously boosted the dollar, reflecting investor sentiment.
Market predictions indicate that if Trump implements trade tariffs and tax cuts, inflation may rise. Consequently, this scenario would make it less likely for the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates. The Fed is anticipated to lower rates by 0.25% on Thursday, just after the election.
In stock market movements, shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, which oversees Truth Social, fluctuated significantly. The stock swung from losses of over 7% to close up 12%, showing investor volatility.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin also mirrored the political climate, falling 3% to $67,100. Trump’s alignment with pro-cryptocurrency policies has garnered support from Silicon Valley investors, further complicating market dynamics.
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