Exactly 1 year ago (October 02 2023, see chart below), we published a renewed approach on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) historic Cycles, using the 'Angles Theory' on the logarithmic curve to make a more accurate roadmap of the current Cycle:
Back then, the price was 'just' $28000 and a few months later it catapulted to almost $74000. Below we present again the basics of that analysis, in order to refresh your memory.
Cycle Peaks and angles
BTC's Cycle peaks in historical order have been $32, $1250, $19800, $69800. They all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception.
Every peak-to-peak measurement appears to be roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 42°, 22°, 11°. We estimate a 7° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve.
Next Cycle peak?
If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 7° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 160000 (slightly updated from our study a year ago). It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 8° angle.
Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels.
Last year compared to now
So how has this Theory worked out compared to last year? Well beyond doubt, the Cycle was much more aggressive that the previous two (blue and orange) due to mainly the Bitcoin ETF launch, and is certainly more similar to the first Cycle (black). That suggests that it will top by January 2025 but the Sine Waves Tops, which have caught Bitcoin's cyclical peaks with incredible accuracy, indicate it will be around November 2025. As you can see, this is exactly where the projection of the blue and orange fractals show.
But what do you think? Will the current Cycle peak at the end of 2025 and if show will it be at a minimum of $140000 and a maximum of $1600000, as the 7° angle on the Log Curve suggests? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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