Although Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been actively purchasing Bitcoin recently, one indicator suggests otherwise. The Coinbase Premium Indicator, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Bitcoin on Binance (BTC/USDT pair), has shown a negative premium. This implies that:
1. Investors on Coinbase are selling Bitcoin more than the rest of the market.
2. Investors on Coinbase are staying out of the current price rally.
As Coinbase Pro is considered a gateway for institutional investors to purchase cryptocurrencies, the Coinbase Premium is often used to gauge institutional demand from U.S.-based whales.
However, the possibility of inflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs affecting Bitcoin prices on the spot market cannot be entirely ruled out. It’s highly likely that Bitcoin Spot ETFs are still accumulating Bitcoin through OTC (over-the-counter) platforms. The positive aspect here is that even without experiencing a supply shock similar to early 2024, when Bitcoin Spot ETFs were aggressively purchasing, the price is currently only about 10% below the all-time high (ATH).
I am confident that there is an 80% chance $BTC will reach a new ATH within October, especially once we see the Coinbase Premium indicator turn positive again.