Bitcoin struggles under bearish conditions with modest recovery attempts.
Expiring BTC options may influence upcoming price movements.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, continues to struggle under bearish conditions, despite recent attempts at recovery. After briefly falling below $56,100, Bitcoin has rebounded slightly and is currently trading at $58,000, reflecting a modest decline. Notably, trading volume is up by 11%. And, over the past seven days, Bitcoin has experienced a 4.4% drop.
This bearish momentum aligns with a broader market sentiment downturn yesterday, exacerbated by the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Although the stock market reacted positively, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, with Grayscale’s GBTC being the most affected. Conversely, Ether ETFs continued to see inflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA notably gaining traction.
Meanwhile, adding to the market’s complexity, 24,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.83, a Max Pain point of $59,500, and a notional value of $1.4 billion. Similarly, 184,000 ETH options are expiring with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.80, a Max Pain point of $2,650, and a notional value of $470 million. These expiring options represent about 10% of the total position, with significant August, September, and December contracts accounting for a little over 20%.
The options data suggests a relatively even term distribution and a solid term structure, indicating that the market is gradually lowering expectations for future volatility. This shift suggests that the market may enter a more stable period soon.
What’s Ahead For Bitcoin?
Looking ahead, Bitcoin remains under bearish pressure, with the 9-day EMA at $59,043. The daily RSI, currently at 43, further confirms this bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Chart, Source: Sanbase
Should bullish momentum return, Bitcoin could rise to $60,644 or even $62,703. However, if the bearish trend persists, Bitcoin’s price could retrace to $56,209 and potentially as low as $52,822. Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain as it navigates these challenging market conditions.
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