US stocks have been recovering fast since the Japanese carry trade melt-down a little over a week ago. While not out of the woods yet, a positive CPI figure is expected by the market to be released later today. If the news is positive, stocks could continue their rally. Bitcoin (BTC) may well follow suit.
Recovery follows the bloodbath
A little over a week ago, when US stocks opened into a bloodbath early on the Monday, following the Japanese yen carry trade unwind, things looked as though the much heralded recession was about to get into full bear mode.
The S&P 500 fell around 8%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted over 10%. The top stocks, known as “The Magnificent 7” went down hard. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 24%, while the other large caps fell 10% or more.
Nevertheless, by the end of play on Monday, the recovery had already begun, and has generally continued until now. A good day on Wednesday, assuming that the CPI data is positive, could even take stocks back to where they were before the Japan crash.
Nasdaq about to break the downtrend?
Source: TradingView
Just taking the Nasdaq 100 Index for example, it can be seen that the downtrend could be broken on Wednesday, all being well with the CPI data. If the Index price can then break the resistance at $19,535, the all-important higher high would be made, and the Nasdaq would be on course to head back to its all-time high and beyond - probably taking crypto with it.
Bitcoin late summer breakout?
Source: TradingView
The daily Bitcoin chart shows a similar v-shaped recovery as for Nvidia. A 24% gain from the bottom is where the $BTC price is right now. The big resistance level at $61,000 still needs to be overcome, as well as the 0.618 fibonacci at $62,000. From there, the next target would be $63,000, and then $65,000 at the 0.786 fibonacci.
If the annual core inflation figure does reduce to 3.2%, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut of 50 basis points in September will definitely improve. The economic outlook is still very uncertain, and a black swan could still rear its ugly head, but with global liquidity increasing, the environment for Bitcoin becomes ever more positive. A late summer breakout should be on everyone’s bingo card.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
