The institution: Expectations of rate cuts are excessive, and US bonds have entered the overbought zone.
Mark Dowding, Chief Investment Officer of BlueBay, the asset management company of the Royal Bank of Canada, stated that the recent rise in US Treasuries appears to be somewhat excessive, and the market may have already digested the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Given that there will be an 80 basis point rate cut remaining by 2024, we believe this is an overbought zone, and fair pricing would be a cut of one to two times. Given this view, we are inclined to take a contrarian position on the recent trend in US Treasury yields. (Gold)
