TLDR
President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID-19 while traveling in Las Vegas.
Biden previously stated he might consider dropping out if faced with a “medical condition.”
Prediction markets show a surge in the odds of Biden dropping out, reaching 68-69% on Polymarket.
The COVID diagnosis has also affected Biden’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election.
These developments follow a period of pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race.
President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign faced a new challenge on Wednesday as he tested positive for COVID-19 while traveling in Las Vegas.
This diagnosis, coupled with recent statements about potential reasons for withdrawing from the race, has led to a significant spike in prediction market odds that he might drop out of the 2024 presidential election.
I tested positive for COVID-19 this afternoon, but I am feeling good and thank everyone for the well wishes.
I will be isolating as I recover, and during this time I will continue to work to get the job done for the American people.
— President Biden (@POTUS) July 17, 2024
The White House announced that Biden would recover at his home in Delaware and “continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time.” However, the timing of this health setback is particularly notable given Biden’s recent comments in an interview with BET News.
Just hours before his diagnosis, Biden told interviewer Ed Gordon that he would consider dropping out of the race if faced with a “medical condition.” When asked about circumstances that might lead him to reevaluate his candidacy, Biden responded, “If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, ‘You got this problem, that problem.'”
These statements, followed closely by the COVID-19 diagnosis, have had a dramatic effect on prediction markets. Polymarket, a decentralized blockchain betting site, saw the odds of Biden dropping out of the race surge to between 68% and 69%. This represents a significant increase from earlier in the day when the odds stood at around 33%.
The COVID diagnosis has also impacted Biden’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election. On Polymarket, his chances of outright victory dropped to 13% on Wednesday.
This allowed Vice President Kamala Harris to move into second place in the betting odds, while former President Donald Trump remains the front-runner with a 69% chance of winning, according to crypto bettors.
The surge in dropout odds comes after weeks of pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race. His widely criticized performance in the June 27 debate with Trump had previously caused a spike in these odds. Biden acknowledged the poor performance, attributing it to jet lag and an intense travel schedule.
Despite these challenges, Biden is still favored to be the Democratic party nominee. Polymarket data shows him with a 49% chance of securing the nomination, with over $125 million riding on this bet.
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