In this period, many predictions are circulating regarding the price of Bitcoin (BTC).
It is necessary, however, to distinguish between short, medium, and long-term forecasts.
Short-term forecasts on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
In the short term, what is noticeable when analyzing the price of BTC is a seesaw that has been going on for a few days.
It seems to have started last Friday, but in reality, the trigger was probably on Tuesday, July 2, when the price of Bitcoin (BTC) began to fall below $61,000.
In the span of just four days, it dropped from over $63,000 to less than $54,000, breaking the key level of $57,000 that it had held since the end of February.
Many analysts suspect that the current phase of uncertainty and suffering may last for a while longer.
Fundamentally, there are two hypotheses circulating.
The first is that the price of Bitcoin still has room to go down.
The drop below $54,000 on Friday may not have exhausted all downward pressures, due to still high selling pressure caused by the massive sales by the German government authorities or by the creditors who are receiving the Mt. Gox refunds.
According to this first hypothesis, the price could drop to $51,000 or even below $50,000.
There is, however, also a second hypothesis, according to which Friday would actually have marked the beginning of a period of lateralization simply at lower levels than the previous one.
The lateralization
Although between the end of February and the beginning of March the price of BTC rose from less than $57,000 to over $70,000, that rise ended up stopping as soon as new all-time highs well over $73,000 were recorded.
Since then, for more than four months the price of Bitcoin has effectively moved sideways between $57,000 and $72,000, with brief excursions slightly above and slightly below.
To tell the truth, after more than four months of lateralization, it seemed that this could continue, but the beginning of July brought a change of scenario.
It is not to be excluded, however, that a new phase of lateralization has simply begun, perhaps only within a range set a little lower.
The bottom of this range could be the $54,000 reached on Friday, but perhaps also a lower level, maybe $53,000 or $52,000, or perhaps even $51,000.
More difficult to say is the hypothetical top of this range, which however could be the $64,000 that it failed to surpass on the first of July when it attempted a rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Medium-Term Forecasts
A different discussion is the one that concerns the medium term.
There are in fact several analysts who argue that, once this period of suffering is over, Bitcoin might also have the strength to start again.
This hypothesis is based on the fact that generally the great bullrun of the price of Bitcoin have always started at the end of the halving year, or at the beginning of the following one.
In April there was the fourth halving, and there are some events that could favor the trigger of a bullrun in autumn.
First of all, between September and November, the first Fed rate cut should take place, and this could free up some liquidity.
Secondly, at the beginning of November, there will be the presidential elections in the USA, after which the dollar could start to weaken, thus helping Bitcoin to rise.
Furthermore, historically the annual highs during the bullish years Bitcoin has always recorded them in autumn, between October and December, and for example in the year of the previous halving (2020) the great bullrun started right in October, just before the US presidential elections.
The long-term forecast
In the long term, there are many positive forecasts.
For example, in the event that the bullrun should restart in the fall, many hypothesize that over the course of the next year the price of BTC could exceed $100,000 or even $12,000, with some predictions putting it above $150,000.
It is important to remember that in the past all three major bullrun (2013, 2017, and 2021) were followed by a heavy bear-market.
In the very long term, some speculate even higher figures, up to a million dollars, but in reality, it is extremely difficult to imagine what will actually happen after the next bullrun and the next bear-market.
Conclusions
It should be noted that there are not many pessimistic forecasts, and those that exist are mainly concentrated in the short term. Furthermore, they tend not to be very pessimistic, so much so that there are very few that claim that the price of BTC could return to where the last bullrun started, namely at the 27,000$ mark.
Furthermore, it is interesting to note how during the last sessions the price often fell when the American markets were closed, and the Asian ones were open, while it rose again when the American markets reopened, with the Asian markets closed.
What is certain is that the level of interest regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at this moment is at its lowest since 2022. This low interest means that the buying pressure is low (at times very low), so even a slight increase in selling pressure is enough to bring the price down.
On the other hand, however, the BTC present on the exchanges continue to be few, and this effectively prevents the selling pressure from skyrocketing, at least in the short term.
