Impact of the Largest Employment Revision in 15 Years on the Fed
Today's delayed employment revision, the largest in 15 years, revealed that the U.S. job market was weaker than previously reported. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo had estimated a downward revision between 600,000 and 1 million jobs, and the Labor Department's actual figure came in at 818,000.
This represents the largest downward revision since 2009, showing 818,000 fewer jobs were created than initially reported for the 12-month period ending March 2024.The updated data indicates a weaker labor market than the Bureau of Labor Statistics had suggested, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, anticipates that the Fed will likely signal a rate cut in September.
Navy Federal Credit Union's corporate economist, Robert Frick, added that while the revisions are not surprising, they intensify the need for the Fed to consider reducing rates.As a result of the new data, expectations are rising for a rate cut next month, with investors predicting a 25-basis-point reduction. There's also a growing 30% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.
All eyes are now on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
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