hansolar21
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massive spot bid on ETH
largest imbalance since end of chart
going long.
wish me luck.
largest imbalance since end of chart
going long.
wish me luck.
🧵 Vlad has been replying to some very mis-informed fud regarding @Lighter_xyz , but it is a bit hard to find so decided to aggregate it so people can get a better idea on what the team is trying to build.
1. Volume relative to OI is too high / Lighter is over-farmed
https://t.co/yHXWshDkRu
2. Lighter is full of wash-trading / Lighter is pumping volume on purpose
https://t.co/3rjkmzckbo
https://t.co/TxoG6gj8Xq
https://t.co/Qvx8ALHvd8
3. Zero fees are only temporary
1. Volume relative to OI is too high / Lighter is over-farmed
https://t.co/yHXWshDkRu
2. Lighter is full of wash-trading / Lighter is pumping volume on purpose
https://t.co/3rjkmzckbo
https://t.co/TxoG6gj8Xq
https://t.co/Qvx8ALHvd8
3. Zero fees are only temporary
chop season is actually more PvE than bull markets
fewer eyes on the markets, so the counter-party is actually less informed than hyper-competitive fast rotation bull markets
fewer eyes on the markets, so the counter-party is actually less informed than hyper-competitive fast rotation bull markets
Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-19 ⚖️🐻
BTC makes another attempt at 88k and having trouble breaking through.
Some pretty sizable spot CVDs trying to get it through atm.
This is an important trigger for risk on/off i reckon(the previous attempt was during Liberation day)
Alts also dumping very hard into this resistance showing some bearish signals;
- Lack of demand on alts other than for a short squeeze and
- still plenty of supply overhang left over.
Current thinking
Staying neutral and airing towards bearish as we’re at the top of the range.
Positioning : Delta-neutral.
- Long BTC(Bidding below 80k), HYPE
- Short ETH, SOL, ENA, XRP, APT, SUI, TRUMP, FARTCOIN…
Positives
- Continued BTC/SPX strength
- Macro bottom call from Felix based on extreme pessimism
Negatives
- Hawkish Powell
- Bonds market is fine - Joseph Wang
- Retail still buying dips - Julian Brigden
- Debt refinancing wall in summer - Michael Howell
Stay safe frens
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
BTC makes another attempt at 88k and having trouble breaking through.
Some pretty sizable spot CVDs trying to get it through atm.
This is an important trigger for risk on/off i reckon(the previous attempt was during Liberation day)
Alts also dumping very hard into this resistance showing some bearish signals;
- Lack of demand on alts other than for a short squeeze and
- still plenty of supply overhang left over.
Current thinking
Staying neutral and airing towards bearish as we’re at the top of the range.
Positioning : Delta-neutral.
- Long BTC(Bidding below 80k), HYPE
- Short ETH, SOL, ENA, XRP, APT, SUI, TRUMP, FARTCOIN…
Positives
- Continued BTC/SPX strength
- Macro bottom call from Felix based on extreme pessimism
Negatives
- Hawkish Powell
- Bonds market is fine - Joseph Wang
- Retail still buying dips - Julian Brigden
- Debt refinancing wall in summer - Michael Howell
Stay safe frens
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
The lighter stats page just dropped 👀
And yes, that drawdown hurt.
And yes, that drawdown hurt.
Previous post on volumes, which I've deleted now should have been posted with some context.
A lot of the volume is coming from a few HFTs that are utilizing the zero fees.
The team confirmed there is zero self-matching which is how washed-volume can take place(especially in a lot of shady cexes)
And they're closely monitoring with multiple algorithms for people that may be abusing the program.
Zero-fees and fomo from the successful hyperliquid drop was bound to lead to exaggerated volumes on lighter considering what they've built and the connections they have, but it only takes a slightly more in-depth look to see that the team isn't looking to just show off fake metrics.
The volume picture does get me excited personally,but I will be providing a more nuanced picture of the growth of Lighter focusing on TVL, OI and user growth.
A lot of the volume is coming from a few HFTs that are utilizing the zero fees.
The team confirmed there is zero self-matching which is how washed-volume can take place(especially in a lot of shady cexes)
And they're closely monitoring with multiple algorithms for people that may be abusing the program.
Zero-fees and fomo from the successful hyperliquid drop was bound to lead to exaggerated volumes on lighter considering what they've built and the connections they have, but it only takes a slightly more in-depth look to see that the team isn't looking to just show off fake metrics.
The volume picture does get me excited personally,but I will be providing a more nuanced picture of the growth of Lighter focusing on TVL, OI and user growth.
trade 👉 win 👉 deposit on 220% apr LLP 👉 repeat
trade 👉 win 👉 deposit into 220% apr LLP 👉 repeat
For all the "BTC will follow GOLD" narrative followers...
Every time GLD/SPX had a strong rally, BTC/SPX had months of underperformance.
If you're betting on something else to happen this time, you better have a damn good reason for doing so.
If anything, this chart is saying try longing again in 6 months. At the least.
Every time GLD/SPX had a strong rally, BTC/SPX had months of underperformance.
If you're betting on something else to happen this time, you better have a damn good reason for doing so.
If anything, this chart is saying try longing again in 6 months. At the least.
crypto looking for narratives to explain price action
not the best look imo
not the best look imo
g-furry-m
@velo_xyz how is this market moving news???
Kaito should've never done the airdrop, it was way more fun to post back then
Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-16 ⚖️
Liquidity grab above 86k and then we’ve sliding down for a couple of hours now.
Alts were showing weakness beforehand, indicating an overall defensive market.
Trump catalyzed the rejection with some more bearish news regarding progress on China tariffs, but BTC has been holding up relatively well.
Some interesting long bids on binance futures getting filled, but spot doesn’t seem to interested to follow atm.
Curious to see what Powell will say tomorrow, but with VIX coming down, I don't think he needs to whip out any financial-stability measures.
(Mostly the same positioning as yesterday)
Positioning : Delta-neutral. Waiting for QE. Looking like we need more pain.
- Long BTC(looking to add around 81k), HYPE
- Short ETH, ENA, APT, SUI, XRP…
Positives
- BTC follows Gold narrative?
- Global M2 breaking out to upside. M2 doesn’t equal liquidity, but it’s had a good correlation. https://t.co/AhwZSC9GeJ
Negatives
- Opex is Thursday as Friday is off. Perhaps some risk off into long weekend? Depends of Powell.
- Earnings are getting adjusted for the tariffs. NVIDIA down 5% on the ban from selling H20s, probably more similar news to come. I'd stay defensive at least towards the end of these until early May.
- Market currently feels like it was expecting QE, but seeing markets kinda stabilize, so risk might have to come off.
Stay safe frens ✌️
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
Liquidity grab above 86k and then we’ve sliding down for a couple of hours now.
Alts were showing weakness beforehand, indicating an overall defensive market.
Trump catalyzed the rejection with some more bearish news regarding progress on China tariffs, but BTC has been holding up relatively well.
Some interesting long bids on binance futures getting filled, but spot doesn’t seem to interested to follow atm.
Curious to see what Powell will say tomorrow, but with VIX coming down, I don't think he needs to whip out any financial-stability measures.
(Mostly the same positioning as yesterday)
Positioning : Delta-neutral. Waiting for QE. Looking like we need more pain.
- Long BTC(looking to add around 81k), HYPE
- Short ETH, ENA, APT, SUI, XRP…
Positives
- BTC follows Gold narrative?
- Global M2 breaking out to upside. M2 doesn’t equal liquidity, but it’s had a good correlation. https://t.co/AhwZSC9GeJ
Negatives
- Opex is Thursday as Friday is off. Perhaps some risk off into long weekend? Depends of Powell.
- Earnings are getting adjusted for the tariffs. NVIDIA down 5% on the ban from selling H20s, probably more similar news to come. I'd stay defensive at least towards the end of these until early May.
- Market currently feels like it was expecting QE, but seeing markets kinda stabilize, so risk might have to come off.
Stay safe frens ✌️
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
met with the man, the legend, the bera(?) @CryptoSources
good to share past-cycle war stories with a true degen
thanks for setting up the dinner @KiKi_Blockverse
good to share past-cycle war stories with a true degen
thanks for setting up the dinner @KiKi_Blockverse
Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-15 ⚖️
Portfolio is stable after shifting from Bullish to Neutral.
ETH and some memecoins continued pumping and ate into some of the pnl, but profits from ENA shorts covered the losses.
Feeling comfy being neutral; staying long BTC HYPE, Short alts. Added to more ENA and SUI shorts.
Feels very mid range.
- If Bessent doesn’t seem worried and says he has lots of tools in the toolbox. To me this tells me, be ready for more pain before “QE” QE.
https://t.co/diPf4xero7
- Saylor did a $285m through ATM offering. Supported price pretty well. Previously in March it was $584m. So demand halved. Not great, but be quite volatile.
Positioning : Delta-neutral. Waiting for QE. Looking like we need more pain.
- Long BTC, HYPE
- Short ETH, ENA, APT, SUI, XRP, FARTCOIN…
Positives
- BTC follows Gold narrative?
- Global M2 breaking out to upside. M2 doesn’t equal liquidity, but it’s had a good correlation. https://t.co/AhwZSC9GeJ
Negatives
- 85-86k area is ask heavy for both futures and spot on Binance
- Currently price being held up by idiosyncratic spot buyer on Coinbase
- Delayed QE?
Stay safe frens✌️
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
Portfolio is stable after shifting from Bullish to Neutral.
ETH and some memecoins continued pumping and ate into some of the pnl, but profits from ENA shorts covered the losses.
Feeling comfy being neutral; staying long BTC HYPE, Short alts. Added to more ENA and SUI shorts.
Feels very mid range.
- If Bessent doesn’t seem worried and says he has lots of tools in the toolbox. To me this tells me, be ready for more pain before “QE” QE.
https://t.co/diPf4xero7
- Saylor did a $285m through ATM offering. Supported price pretty well. Previously in March it was $584m. So demand halved. Not great, but be quite volatile.
Positioning : Delta-neutral. Waiting for QE. Looking like we need more pain.
- Long BTC, HYPE
- Short ETH, ENA, APT, SUI, XRP, FARTCOIN…
Positives
- BTC follows Gold narrative?
- Global M2 breaking out to upside. M2 doesn’t equal liquidity, but it’s had a good correlation. https://t.co/AhwZSC9GeJ
Negatives
- 85-86k area is ask heavy for both futures and spot on Binance
- Currently price being held up by idiosyncratic spot buyer on Coinbase
- Delayed QE?
Stay safe frens✌️
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
덤핑 종착국 대한민국
오늘 -90% 빠진 OM(맨트라)을 보고 묘한 기분이 들어 한글로 글을 써봅니다.
(검머외라 글이 좀 어설플 수 있습니다)
이번주가 ‘이더리움 서울’ 컨프런스라 각 종 해외 프로젝트들이 한국에 와서 자기네 프로젝트랑 코인을 홍보하는 주입니다.
그중에 건전한 프로젝트들도 있겠지만… 그렇지 않은 경우도 많다는 건 잘 아실겁니다.
오늘 한국에서 만트라(OM)라는 프로젝트가 RWA 관련 컨퍼런스를 주최했는데요, 아이러니하게도 어제 몇시간만에 최대 95%까지 폭락하기도 했습니다.
https://t.co/QE2XuzIYYM
순식간에 7조원의 시장가치가 날아간 샘입니다.
스캠 프로젝트인건 분명한데…
이런 프로젝트가 한국에 왜 왔을까요?
결국 또 한국인들을 대상으로 엑싯하려고 온거겠죠.
이름 좀 알리고, 업비트랑 빗썸이랑 상장 관련 회의도 하고, 상장비 네고도하고 상장을 진행하려고 했었겠죠?
다행이도 그전에 언락물량이 관리가 안돼서 한국 피해자는 많지 않아 보입니다.
하지만 이런 행보가 언제까지 반복될지 의문입니다.
한국은 이미 크립토계의 '덤핑 국가'로 자리 잡은 지 오래 됐습니다.
아래 차트는 최근에 상장한 업비트 코인들입니다.
상장시점에 샀을 경우 Virtual는 -73%, Bonk는 -73%, Cow는 -28%.
하입 사이클로 보면, 업비트 상장 시점은 ‘붕괴 단계’에 해당하는 경우가 많습니다.
크립토에서는 스마트 머니 → 기관 투자자 → 대중투자자 → 코리안 투자자로 보시면 될 것같습니다.
위 차트들은 2025년 기준이지만, 김치 프리미엄 데이터를 보면 이 현상이 오래전부터 반복되고 있었음을 알 수 있습니다.
한국의 매수 강도가 가장 높을 때가 늘 꼭짓점이었습니다.
그 다음 바이어가 더 이상 없는 거죠.
그래서 해외 프로젝트들이 시간 들이고 돈 들여서 한국에 오는 겁니다.
엑싯을하려고.
친절을 호의로 착각하지 않았으면 좋겠네요.
오늘 -90% 빠진 OM(맨트라)을 보고 묘한 기분이 들어 한글로 글을 써봅니다.
(검머외라 글이 좀 어설플 수 있습니다)
이번주가 ‘이더리움 서울’ 컨프런스라 각 종 해외 프로젝트들이 한국에 와서 자기네 프로젝트랑 코인을 홍보하는 주입니다.
그중에 건전한 프로젝트들도 있겠지만… 그렇지 않은 경우도 많다는 건 잘 아실겁니다.
오늘 한국에서 만트라(OM)라는 프로젝트가 RWA 관련 컨퍼런스를 주최했는데요, 아이러니하게도 어제 몇시간만에 최대 95%까지 폭락하기도 했습니다.
https://t.co/QE2XuzIYYM
순식간에 7조원의 시장가치가 날아간 샘입니다.
스캠 프로젝트인건 분명한데…
이런 프로젝트가 한국에 왜 왔을까요?
결국 또 한국인들을 대상으로 엑싯하려고 온거겠죠.
이름 좀 알리고, 업비트랑 빗썸이랑 상장 관련 회의도 하고, 상장비 네고도하고 상장을 진행하려고 했었겠죠?
다행이도 그전에 언락물량이 관리가 안돼서 한국 피해자는 많지 않아 보입니다.
하지만 이런 행보가 언제까지 반복될지 의문입니다.
한국은 이미 크립토계의 '덤핑 국가'로 자리 잡은 지 오래 됐습니다.
아래 차트는 최근에 상장한 업비트 코인들입니다.
상장시점에 샀을 경우 Virtual는 -73%, Bonk는 -73%, Cow는 -28%.
하입 사이클로 보면, 업비트 상장 시점은 ‘붕괴 단계’에 해당하는 경우가 많습니다.
크립토에서는 스마트 머니 → 기관 투자자 → 대중투자자 → 코리안 투자자로 보시면 될 것같습니다.
위 차트들은 2025년 기준이지만, 김치 프리미엄 데이터를 보면 이 현상이 오래전부터 반복되고 있었음을 알 수 있습니다.
한국의 매수 강도가 가장 높을 때가 늘 꼭짓점이었습니다.
그 다음 바이어가 더 이상 없는 거죠.
그래서 해외 프로젝트들이 시간 들이고 돈 들여서 한국에 오는 겁니다.
엑싯을하려고.
친절을 호의로 착각하지 않았으면 좋겠네요.
Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-14 ⚖️
It’s been a bullish weekend continued off the trump-put on Wed.
TP’d Fartcoin and hedged my longs with alts after a muted reaction from the fake news saying the USG would buy BTC with Gold.
Trump has reverse uno’d everyone with the tariffs, but we’re still seeing interesting strength on the Asian open.
I’m gonna fade it for now. I think this move is mostly done.
Will be looking to buy dips.
Positioning : Delta-neutral. Waiting for QE.
- Long BTC, HYPE
- Short ETH, FARTCOIN, ENA, APT, SUI, XRP…
Positives
- BTC follows Gold narrative?
- Liquidity backstop theory(QE)
- Global M2 breaking out to upside. M2 doesn’t equal liquidity, but it’s had a good correlation.
Negatives
- Not liking the aggressive uptick in futures CVDs over the weekend
- 85k area is ask heavy for both futures and spot on Binance
- Currently price being held up by idiosyncratic spot buyer on Coinbase. Probably fade.
Stay safe frens✌️
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
It’s been a bullish weekend continued off the trump-put on Wed.
TP’d Fartcoin and hedged my longs with alts after a muted reaction from the fake news saying the USG would buy BTC with Gold.
Trump has reverse uno’d everyone with the tariffs, but we’re still seeing interesting strength on the Asian open.
I’m gonna fade it for now. I think this move is mostly done.
Will be looking to buy dips.
Positioning : Delta-neutral. Waiting for QE.
- Long BTC, HYPE
- Short ETH, FARTCOIN, ENA, APT, SUI, XRP…
Positives
- BTC follows Gold narrative?
- Liquidity backstop theory(QE)
- Global M2 breaking out to upside. M2 doesn’t equal liquidity, but it’s had a good correlation.
Negatives
- Not liking the aggressive uptick in futures CVDs over the weekend
- 85k area is ask heavy for both futures and spot on Binance
- Currently price being held up by idiosyncratic spot buyer on Coinbase. Probably fade.
Stay safe frens✌️
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz
Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.
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