We are now seeing signs that not only long-term (7+ years) holders, but also medium-term (6months ~ 7 years) holders are accumulating rather than distributing.

Interestingly, this sign was also seen in '19.3Q, and at that time, the price moved sideways for more than half a year before a rally occurred at some point.

Of course, we can't sure the same pattern repeats again now just like that time. But it is clear is that we can expect another rally at some point in the near future when the portion of long-term investors increases.

Written by SignalQuant

Following last week's surprise approval of the #Ethereum 19B-4 (Spot ETF Review Request), the Grayscale Ethereum Trust premium spiked to -0.81% and has been trading close to 0% ever since.

This suggests that institutional investors in the US are already almost certain to approve an Ethereum spot ETF.

Furthermore, if the approval is fully finalized, US institutional investors will have the opportunity to earn a risk-free return on a premium that has fallen by up to -27% during this correction.

Written by MAC_D

In the Bitcoin market, large investors, known as whales, play a significant role in price movements. Let's examine how whale activities have changed over the last 144 hours and how these movements have affected the price of Bitcoin.

The graph shows the progression of Bitcoin prices and whale activity (Whale Ratio) over time. At the top, we see the price movements of Bitcoin, while the blue area at the bottom represents the intensity of whale transactions.

Whale activity indicates the engagement of large investors in the market. If the ratio is high, it means that whales are making significant transactions. Recently, the whale activity ratio has been on a continuous upward trend, indicating that large players are increasingly making more transactions.

The declines marked with red arrows on the graph coincide with periods when the whale activity ratio increases. This suggests that large players are selling, which drives the prices down. Recently, the whale activity ratio has been hovering at high levels. This creates constant pressure on the price. In other words, even if whales are not making large sales, their substantial holdings prevent prices from rising.

It is crucial to be cautious when assessing this situation. Monitoring the movements of large investors can be beneficial for predicting price changes. Especially when whale activity is high, it is advisable to be prepared for sudden price drops.

In conclusion, whales have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. Tracking their movements can help us better understand the market and make more informed investment decisions.

Written by datascope

This chart shows an increasing trend in the number of addresses within each balance range over time, indicating growing demand and accumulation of ETH.

Notably, the increase in addresses with large balances suggests that institutional investors or "whales" are accumulating more ETH.

Black Line: Represents the price of ETH.

Blue Area: Represents addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH.

Orange Area: Represents addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH.

Green Area: Represents addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH.

Purple Area: Represents addresses holding more than 100,000 ETH.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

1. An interesting fact is that the CryptoQuant exchange deposit alerts have not occurred for about three weeks (see photo 3). Even if we assume that the alerts are not occurring due to a temporary error, it is clear from photos 1 and 2.

2. There are still no signs of the exchange deposits accumulating or rapidly increasing to create direct selling pressure on the market (see photos 2 and 3).

It is clear that over 200,000 Bitcoins have been sold since March. However, if there are still no signs of Bitcoins being accumulated or deposited into exchanges, it can be assumed that most of them were traded over-the-counter.(otc)

Written by Mignolet

Open interest indicates the total number of transactions.

If OI rises while the price rises, we can say that it supports the price, indicating a strong rise.

If open interest is increasing while the price is falling, we can infer a strong decline.

Based on this, if the open interest is falling while the price is rising, it suggests that the price may soon reverse. Conversely, if open interest falls while the price falls, it indicates that a rise may soon begin.

With the approval of the ETH open interest ETF, open interest has risen to $12B, which seems to support the rise in price.

I added the EMA144 here, and we see that it acts as support and resistance.

When the price enters a bull trend, EMA144 provides the best long opportunities.

When the price enters a bear trend, we see that it offers the best selling points.

Summary: When we enter a bearish trend, moving above it is a selling opportunity. In a bullish trend, falling below it is a buying opportunity.

For now, we can expect the rise to continue until the positions are closed, but this alone does not make sense.

Written by XBTManager

The Coinbase Premium Index provided by CryptoQuant refers to the value obtained by subtracting the coin price on the Binance exchange from the coin price on the Coinbase Pro exchange. The higher the premium, the stronger the buying pressure from US investors.

There are reports that since the BTC spot ETF was approved in the US, the influence of US investors on the BTC price has increased. Therefore, it is important to look at the movements of the Coinbase exchange they mainly use.

We analyzed the short-term momentum of the Coinbase Premium Index by setting it to a 1-hour time frame and using the daily (24-hour) and weekly (168-hour) moving averages.

The results show that when the 🔴daily moving average strongly crosses above the 🔵weekly moving average, a significant price movement often follows. Specifically, a 📈golden cross, where the daily band rises above the weekly band, is typically followed by a price increase, while a 📉death cross indicates a subsequent price decline.

Although this indicator is based on trends observed from the Coinbase and Binance exchanges and may produce false signals, it could still be a useful reference for swing traders.

Written by Yonsei_dent

Ethereum is surpassing Bitcoin in the growth of open interest in the current period. Are we approaching altcoin season?

If Ethereum’s price continues to consolidate in the current range, it’s very possible that the altcoin season will start sooner than expected.

Written by abramchart

A segment of payment functions now resides in a multi-faceted communication application. In the Asia market, WeChat leads this space, while in Asian markets, Telegram's adoption is lower, as seen in the map views of user adoption for WeChat and Telegram.

Telegram's announcement to make TON its primary Web3 infrastructure enhances long-term competition. However, short-term opportunities depend on Telegram maintaining its dominance as a multi-faceted Web3 communication platform.

The tokenomics of the TON environment link Telegram's active user base directly to active wallet addresses for TON services and payment functionalities. Steady adoption of Telegram in under-banked and unbanked regions, such as Africa, could drive the price. Currently, with a supply of 5 billion coins and an inflation rate of 2 percent, leading to an estimated 10 billion coins in 35 years (as per the whitepaper), steady price increases are likely in the long run.

Price analysis over one year and a 90-day percentage return indicates steady growth in TON adoption, with increasing activity and demand for the TON coin. This trend is primarily driven by Telegram's limited features. Therefore, continued upside in the token is expected.

Final Thoughts:

The TON coin is comparable to Chainlink. While Chainlink serves as a bridge for chains, TON aims to be the bridge for multi-faceted modern communication channels.

Written by ShivenMoodley

Bitcoin's price has nearly recovered from a 22% drawdown from its all-time high, showing strong support at $60,000. This support level is influenced by the behavior of new whale cohorts. Let's analyze the realized price and supply trends among different Bitcoin address cohorts to understand market dynamics and future price implications.

Realized Price by Address Cohorts: New vs. Old Whales

The first chart shows the realized price (RP) trends for new whales, old whales, and addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC.

Key Observations:

New Whales RP: The green line represents new whales (addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of less than six months). Their RP has risen significantly, closely following Bitcoin's market price, indicating continuous accumulation at higher prices.

Old Whales RP: The orange line for old whales (addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of more than six months) remains relatively flat, suggesting these holders have a stable, lower average cost basis.

Large Balances RP: The purple line for addresses with balances over 10,000 BTC shows a steady increase, aligning with the overall bullish trend.

Implications:

The alignment of new whales' RP with Bitcoin's market price, especially after the SEC approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicates sustained buying pressure from this cohort.

The stable RP of old whales suggests they are not significantly affecting recent liquidity changes.

Written by onchained

Transactions exceeding $1M USD dominate the on-chain volume of TON. Following the rise of Toncoin in 2024, there has been a significant increase in high-value transactions in dollars, indicating growing interest from whales and increased network activity among these participants. The number of such transactions has also increased proportionally, undoubtedly contributing to the rise in Toncoin's price. As a result, TON has become a robust blockchain with high value transfer capacity and a gradual increase in participation from large investors.

Written by joaowedson

The whales’ appetite for buying Bitcoin has returned strongly, after a two-month decline in buying interest since March.

They are now returning with a strong buying force again, indicating that the current prices are suitable for purchasing and accumulating despite the widespread fear.

Written by abramchart

BTCs on the exchange are interpreted as selling pressure. Especially in case of sharp price increases, the first place we should look is the exchange reserves.

Since Bitcoin's bottom, we have seen a steady decline in exchange reserves. When we tested the 60k band recently, the reserves had also bottomed out. When we got a reaction from here and reached the 70k region, an increase in reserves was observed and the price experienced a correction.

At this point, the level we need to pay attention to is the 2m $btc region. If we see a buildup above this level, we can interpret it as a sales preparation by the whales. We have observed an increase in reserves in recent days. It is possible to interpret this increase as operational sales made by miners. . As a basis for this, we can show the decrease in miners' reserves in the same period.

Written by KriptoBaykusV2

The fall of the Puell Multiple after a halving of Bitcoin is a phenomenon that can have several implications and meanings for the market.

The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, halves the mining reward per block, directly impacting miners' income.

With the reward reduced, miners' daily revenue decreases substantially, unless the price of Bitcoin rises significantly to compensate for this reduction.

Given that the Puell Multiple is the ratio between daily revenue and the 365-day moving average, a sharp drop in daily revenue after halving leads to a decrease in the Puell Multiple, as the long-term moving average takes time to adjust to this new reality.

The reduction in miners' daily revenue indicates that mining has become less profitable, unless the price of Bitcoin increases significantly. The current range in which the Puell Multiple is quoted confirms Price discount, meaning that the network is potentially cheap.

The decrease in the supply of new bitcoins could create upward pressure on the price, especially if demand continues to grow. Investors may interpret the fall in the Puell Multiple as a sign that the market is adjusting to a new phase of scarcity, potentially preparing for a rally.

Therefore, this phenomenon could signal a phase of adjustment in the mining market, influence the supply and demand of Bitcoin and possibly anticipate significant movements in the price.

Written by G a a h

One way to assess the level of decentralization among the wealthiest and the poorest in terms of balance quantity is through the Gini coefficient. And the TON Blockchain is becoming even more decentralized over time.

A decline in the Gini coefficient over time on the TON blockchain can indicate a more equitable distribution of wealth among TON token holders. The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality, where values closer to 0 indicate a more equitable distribution of wealth and values closer to 1 indicate a more unequal distribution.

Therefore, if the Gini coefficient is decreasing over time, it suggests that wealth concentration is diminishing and that more individuals or addresses are acquiring TON tokens more equitably. This can be interpreted as a sign of increased participation and resource distribution in the TON network, which can be seen as positive in terms of decentralization and community inclusion."

Written by joaowedson

Today, I will analyze the relationship between NUPL and price, and discuss how we can take action.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is calculated by comparing market value and realized value. Bitcoins are valued at their purchase price.

Now, I will explain how we should use it during bull and bear trends, and show how to build a strategy using the EMA.

When our NUPL value falls below 0, the last bitcoins sent, according to the market value, are considered expensive, signaling potential local bottoms. At this point, some are selling at a loss while others are in surrender mode. When the surrender phase ends, selling decreases, and the price stabilizes at a certain bottom point.

When the NUPL value rises above 0, it indicates that the market value has increased and exceeds the unrealized value.

Potential support and resistance levels here are psychological. Each quarter crossing can psychologically initiate a rise or pullback.

In bullish trends, NUPL usually hovers between 0.5 and 0.75.

The bull market typically starts to end when NUPL reaches 0.70 and above.

Since we are currently in a bull market, price increases are likely as long as NUPL stays between 0.5 and 0.75. Pullbacks are buying opportunities for us. When we see the price increase together with NUPL, it indicates that selling pressure has come and will continue. We can think that the market is completely heated up, and when we enter the greed phase at 0.75, we should be cautious as deep corrections will likely occur.

I have added the EMA 121 here, which shows us the areas where momentum will gain and lose. When we look at the NUPL value, we see that EMA 121 often acts as support and resistance. It indicates that in some cases, manipulation occurs, and we can take a position when it moves back above or below the EMA.

In some areas, deviations occur, showing us which way to turn positions when momentum is gained or lost again.

The BULL market continues. The excess has not yet arrived.

Written by XBTManager

The perpetual futures market has significantly influenced crypto prices in recent years. Examining this market’s metrics can offer valuable insights for predicting future price movements. One key metric is the 7-day moving average of the Taker Buy Sell Ratio, which indicates whether buyers or sellers are dominating market orders. Since market orders directly impact prices, this metric is crucial.

The Taker Buy Sell Ratio has consistently been below 1 for the past few months, suggesting that sellers have been more active in the ETH futures market. This aggressive selling could be due to speculative activities or as a hedging strategy for spot portfolios. However, despite being below 1 for the last five months, the ratio has recently shown a gradual increase, coinciding with a rise in ETH prices. It is now approaching the 1 mark.

This upward trend in the Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates a potential shift in market dynamics. If the ratio continues to rise, it may signal a reduction in aggressive selling pressure. Consequently, with sufficient demand from the spot market, this shift could sustain the current uptrend.

Written by ShayanBTC

Could Huge Ethereum Netflows from Coinbase Be Related to Spot ETF Approval?

Before the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, we had already witnessed significant Bitcoin netflow from Coinbase.

1- Coinbase Netflow

When examining Coinbase netflow data, we observed substantial Ethereum netflow on three different days in 2024, specifically 134K, 120K, and 132K.

I'm not definitively saying this is related to the Spot ETF, but we had seen similar large netflows before the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

In the above chart, you can see the Coinbase Bitcoin Netflow data from June 2023 to January 2024.

The first thing that will likely catch your eye is the three distinct days where more than 10,000 Bitcoins (daily) were netflows.

This similarity alone cannot, of course, be directly linked to the Ethereum Spot ETF approval. However, it is still worth keeping an eye on this data.

2- All Exchanges ETH Netflow

In the chart above, you can analyze the 2024 Ethereum netflow (all exchanges) data.

Recently, we can clearly see a divergence between Coinbase and other exchanges in this data. This indicates that the interest of US investors in Ethereum has significantly increased compared to the rest of the world.

Why do you think US investors' interest is so high?

✅ Conclusion

The similarities in Coinbase-specific Bitcoin and Ethereum netflow data before the Spot ETF (the decision on the Ethereum Spot ETF will be made by this Friday). Unknown investors in the US have bought more than $400 million worth of Ethereum on three different days in 2024.

My personal opinion is that there are unnamed institutions behind these daily purchases of over $400 million, as it seems overly optimistic to assume that individuals are making such large purchases.

Thank you for reading.

Written by burakkesmeci

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has risen approximately 4%, trading again above the $70k mark. One of the drivers of this movement has been strong demand through ETFs, with net inflows of approximately $1.2 billion over the last week.

Key Observations:

Short-Term Holder Profitability: The recent price increase has restored a healthy level of profitability for short-term BTC holders, reducing the risk of a break in investor sentiment and a reversal from a bullish to a bearish trend.

Price Consolidation: Despite the rise, a consolidation within the $60k to $70k range still seems more plausible for some time. This is due to the lack of significant macroeconomic incentives for a massive influx of capital into the market and the transition to a phase of euphoria, as observed in previous cycles.

Economic Calendar: This week, the economic calendar is weak, which is positive in the current context, considering the still positive sentiment with the latest U.S. inflation data. However, a shift to a risk-off sentiment due to poor economic data could lead to a correction back to the $60k range.

Outlook: Despite my base scenario of consolidation, signs of a new wave of demand are emerging. There is a growing possibility that the next rally could begin sooner than expected.

Written by Gustavo Faria

With a rise of more than 8% during yesterday, Bitcoin recorded one of the best days of 2024 and was driven by strong liquidations in the futures market.

During the day, around US$259 million in sales contracts were liquidated, which ended up generating significant cash buying pressure.

Furthermore, this was the largest short contract liquidation event since 2022 and marks a structural change in Bitcoin pricing.

Events like this have the ability to directly influence the price, but they originate in the spot market with the intense accumulation of the last few days.

This process of institutional accumulation was being tracked in our analysis and has started to impact the price now.

Retail investors are expected to add more buying pressure on “FOMO”, but short-term corrections may emerge.

Written by caueconomy