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Ael
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A deep correction in the horizon.
#BTC☀ $BTC
Is 104K the Top? Why a deep correction could be on the Horizon
The market's been on fire, pushing to a new all-time high (ATH) near 104K. But as tempting as it is to expect the rally to keep going, there are several signals flashing red right now. These clues suggest we might not see a monthly close higher than 104K, and a correction toward 30K could be coming. Let’s take a closer look at why this might be the case.
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1. The Broadening Wedge is Telling a Story
If you zoom out, you'll notice the price has been climbing within a long-term ascending broadening wedge. The new ATH is touching the upper trendline of this pattern. In the past, hitting this kind of resistance zone has often signaled the end of a rally, followed by a significant drop.
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2. A Bullish Shark Pattern Points to 30K
There’s also a possible bullish Shark harmonic pattern in play. In this pattern, the recent ATH lines up perfectly with point C. If the pattern holds, the next move would take us down to point D — which could land us around 30K. It sounds counterintuitive. but.!
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3. Fibonacci Levels Aren’t Random
When you draw Fibonacci retracement levels from this ATH to the bottom of the last bear market, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels match the support and resistance zones we saw during the last reaccumulation phase (between 74K and 49K).
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4. Extreme Greed is Taking Over
The Fear and Greed Index is currently showing extreme greed. Historically, when everyone is euphoric, corrections are just around the corner. Think of it like a party that’s gone on too long — eventually, someone has to turn on the lights.
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5. RSI Divergence is a Warning Sign
On the monthly chart, there’s a strong bearish RSI divergence. While the price keeps making higher highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower highs. This is a classic sign that momentum is fading. In higher timeframes like this, such divergences are hard to ignore and often lead to reversals.
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6. December Peaks Aren’t New
There’s a pattern in the calendar, too. Historically, most ATHs happen in December (and sometimes November). If this trend holds, this latest high could be the peak for this cycle.
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7. Signs of Distribution !
At these levels, there are signs of distribution (High volume at every small drop) meaning big players are offloading their positions while retail investors are buying in. This kind of behavior usually precedes a downturn.
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8. Two Years of Growth — Are We Due for a Reset?
We’ve had two years of solid growth, with one major accumulation phase and two reaccumulations. It’s starting to feel like the market might be due for a larger correction before the next big leg up.
--- Keep in mind that there's a possibility of a bull trap above 104k, but my point is clear . see you after a couple of months
In the end, we are just fishes in a sea full of whales — so be careful.
Is 104K the Top? Why a deep correction could be on the Horizon
The market's been on fire, pushing to a new all-time high (ATH) near 104K. But as tempting as it is to expect the rally to keep going, there are several signals flashing red right now. These clues suggest we might not see a monthly close higher than 104K, and a correction toward 30K could be coming. Let’s take a closer look at why this might be the case.
---
1. The Broadening Wedge is Telling a Story
If you zoom out, you'll notice the price has been climbing within a long-term ascending broadening wedge. The new ATH is touching the upper trendline of this pattern. In the past, hitting this kind of resistance zone has often signaled the end of a rally, followed by a significant drop.
---
2. A Bullish Shark Pattern Points to 30K
There’s also a possible bullish Shark harmonic pattern in play. In this pattern, the recent ATH lines up perfectly with point C. If the pattern holds, the next move would take us down to point D — which could land us around 30K. It sounds counterintuitive. but.!
---
3. Fibonacci Levels Aren’t Random
When you draw Fibonacci retracement levels from this ATH to the bottom of the last bear market, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels match the support and resistance zones we saw during the last reaccumulation phase (between 74K and 49K).
---
4. Extreme Greed is Taking Over
The Fear and Greed Index is currently showing extreme greed. Historically, when everyone is euphoric, corrections are just around the corner. Think of it like a party that’s gone on too long — eventually, someone has to turn on the lights.
---
5. RSI Divergence is a Warning Sign
On the monthly chart, there’s a strong bearish RSI divergence. While the price keeps making higher highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower highs. This is a classic sign that momentum is fading. In higher timeframes like this, such divergences are hard to ignore and often lead to reversals.
---
6. December Peaks Aren’t New
There’s a pattern in the calendar, too. Historically, most ATHs happen in December (and sometimes November). If this trend holds, this latest high could be the peak for this cycle.
---
7. Signs of Distribution !
At these levels, there are signs of distribution (High volume at every small drop) meaning big players are offloading their positions while retail investors are buying in. This kind of behavior usually precedes a downturn.
--
8. Two Years of Growth — Are We Due for a Reset?
We’ve had two years of solid growth, with one major accumulation phase and two reaccumulations. It’s starting to feel like the market might be due for a larger correction before the next big leg up.
--- Keep in mind that there's a possibility of a bull trap above 104k, but my point is clear . see you after a couple of months
In the end, we are just fishes in a sea full of whales — so be careful.
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