The crypto market recently experienced its first altcoin season in more than 10 months. This brief rally saw many altcoins outperforming Bitcoin. But now, the altcoin season index has dropped again.
This shortened momentum has left investors concerned, as the rapid fading of optimism raises questions about the sustainability of altcoin trends in the current market.
Is Altcoin Season Over?
According to data from Santiment, the recent drop in altcoin prices triggered a surge in buying interest. This spike in buying activity was the highest in weeks, even surpassing the level of interest seen when Bitcoin was gearing up for its rally.
Such spikes often signal crypto investors’ sentiment is driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), particularly when altcoins show signs of short-term gains. This behavior typically results in increased market volatility as investors attempt to capitalize on what could be a fleeting opportunity.
Despite the heightened buying interest, the fact that the altcoin season may have been short-lived leaves a sense of uncertainty in the market. FOMO-driven buying can create an unsustainable demand for altcoins, especially when the broader market sentiment remains hesitant. The sudden drop in prices after the altcoin season indicates that many investors may have been overzealous, causing the market to correct itself quickly.
Buying Interest. Source: Santiment
The overall macro momentum of the altcoin market suggests a lack of sustained bullish sentiment. The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 50 altcoins compared to Bitcoin, has dropped significantly.
This decline is a clear sign that altcoins are losing ground against Bitcoin, which has reasserted its dominance in the market. As the Altcoin Season Index falls, the broader altcoin market tends to fade, as seen with this current altcoin season, which seemed to only last about a week.
The waning altcoin season highlights the challenges altcoins face in sustaining momentum when Bitcoin continues to show strong performance. The market’s focus on Bitcoin often overshadows altcoin rallies, leading to a quick return to Bitcoin’s dominance. This dynamic suggests that, unless a significant shift in investor sentiment occurs, altcoins may struggle to maintain strong momentum in the near future.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchain Center Altcoin Price Prediction: Support Ahead
The total crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2), has experienced a significant decline, dropping by $140 billion in the last 24 hours. This downturn in altcoin prices has heavily impacted the overall market. If altcoins continue to fall, TOTAL2 could face additional losses, leading to more market uncertainty.
Currently, the crypto market cap is attempting to reclaim the $1.57 trillion level as support. This price point is crucial for maintaining a bullish outlook in the short term. If the market cap can hold this level, it could set the stage for a potential uptrend, stabilizing investor confidence.
TOTAL2 Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, a deeper correction in altcoins may drag the market cap down to $1.22 trillion. Such a drop would significantly undermine the current bullish scenario, potentially triggering a broader market correction. A failure to maintain key support levels could lead to a more prolonged bearish trend.