In the cryptocurrency domain, the anticipation among crypto enthusiasts revolves around the arrival of Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and the impending April 2024 Bitcoin Halving. This enthusiasm stems from historical trends and Bitcoin's widespread adoption. Past records reveal a remarkable surge in Bitcoin's value following previous halving events.
Renowned trader Peter Brandt shared insights on Bitcoin halving, cautioning against overstated excitement. Brandt emphasized that while the halving might briefly impact prices, the actual decrease in supply compared to daily trade volume is minimal—a mere speck in the larger picture. In essence, the halving's effect on the overall supply is relatively minor despite the buzz it generates.
Brandt emphasized focusing on an asset's supply and demand, highlighting the significance of volume over halving events. However, historical data paints a different picture, showing substantial price hikes after each halving.
For instance, the first halving in November 2012 saw BTC priced at $12. Within a year, it soared to $1157, a staggering 100-fold increase. Similarly, after the second halving in September 2016, BTC surged from $675 to $19,650 in just a year—a 30x rise. The third halving in November 2021, with BTC around $8,800, saw it climb to $68,988 within 1.5 years, an 8x leap.
These statistics suggest a potential significant surge in BTC value post the upcoming halving, potentially surpassing $150k. However, against 2024 expectations, historical data indicates this milestone might occur in 2025. Furthermore, approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could trigger a substantial spike in BTC price.
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