On November 27, Bloomberg terminal data reported that Citi analysts issued a report stating that Trump’s proposed tariffs could reduce the gains of the S&P 500 Index by a few percentage points. They highlighted that the market has not fully accounted for this risk, particularly new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico.
Industries with higher trade risks, such as Canada’s energy exports, are likely to be impacted. Tariffs could lower S&P 500 earnings in 2025 and significantly affect gross margins. However, past tariff reductions have shown that leniency is possible, and the market’s focus has shifted from the election to policy uncertainty.
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