BTC/USDT Technical Analysis (4-Hour Timeframe)
Key Observations:
Trend and Moving Averages:
1. 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
• Positioned at approximately 88,064, the 50 EMA is acting as a dynamic support for the ongoing trend.
• Price is well above the 50 EMA, confirming bullish momentum in the short to mid-term.
2. 200 EMA:
• At 77,445, the 200 EMA provides a long-term bullish structure and is significantly below the current price, affirming a sustained bullish market trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
• RSI (6, 12, 24): Currently between 56–58, indicating neutral to slightly bullish momentum. This suggests price is consolidating after the recent rally, but there is no sign of overbought conditions, leaving room for potential upside.
Volume Analysis:
• Volume is tapering slightly compared to earlier rally phases, signaling consolidation rather than strong buying or selling pressure.
• On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains strong and stable, indicating that accumulation has been consistent.
Fibonacci Retracement (Based on the Chart Structure):
• 23.6% retracement level: Aligns near 91,000, offering immediate support.
• 38.2% retracement level: Around 88,000, which closely corresponds to the 50 EMA—a critical support area.
Resistance and Support Levels:
• Resistance:
• 93,265: This is the most immediate resistance, representing the swing high.
• Psychological resistance at 95,000.
• Support:
• 91,000: Immediate support (23.6% Fibonacci level).
• 88,000: Major support, converging with the 50 EMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Actionable Insights:
Bullish Scenario:
1. If the price breaks above 93,265, it may target the psychological level at 95,000 and potentially move toward 98,000 based on Fibonacci extensions.
2. A strong bounce off 91,000 could present a buying opportunity if confirmed by bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing).
Bearish Scenario:
• A break below the 88,000 level (50 EMA) would weaken the bullish structure, with the next support at 84,000 and potentially 77,445 (200 EMA).
Short-Term Trade Plan:
For Long Positions:
• Entry:
• Enter near 91,000 if price holds this support level.
• Alternatively, buy on a breakout above 93,265 with high volume confirmation.
• Stop-Loss:
• Tight stop below 88,000 for pullback trades.
• For breakout trades, place a stop just below the breakout level (92,500).
• Take-Profit Levels:
• First target: 95,000.
• Second target: 98,000.
For Short Positions:
• Consider shorting if the price fails to hold above 91,000, with a target of 88,000 or 84,000, depending on momentum.
Conclusion:
BTC remains in a strong bullish trend with consolidation near resistance. The key levels to watch are 91,000 (support) and 93,265 (resistance). A breakout or breakdown at these levels will likely define the next move.
