Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow 7% range since Nov. 12, signaling a period of consolidation around $91,000. Still, derivatives indicate that professional traders remain confident in the bull market. Additionally, multiple attempts to break above the $92,000 level suggest strong buying demand beyond the multiple MicroStrategy BTC acquisitions.
Bitcoin 30-day options 25% skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The BTC options delta skew has dropped to its lowest level in four months, indicating the market is pricing a discount for put (sell) options. Levels below -6% suggest bullish sentiment and reflect confidence in the $87,000 support level, particularly from whales and arbitrage desks.
While such data suggests optimism, it does not guarantee that investors are confident the bull market will continue. It is crucial to analyze the factors driving recent momentum. For example, if analysts view MicroStrategy as the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge to a new all-time high, signs should be visible in BTC futures and margin markets.
Is MicroStrategy the sole driver behind Bitcoin’s bull run?
The speculation that a few entities are responsible for the buying activity above $87,000 gained traction after MicroStrategy revealed an additional purchase of 51,780 BTC on Nov. 18. According to an SEC filing, the company now holds over $29 billion in Bitcoin and is actively pursuing a plan to raise $21 billion through the issuance and sale of MSTR shares.
By contrast, investors believe that Bitcoin has higher chances of continued price appreciation if spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) net inflows show signs of early adoption, including increased exposure from pension funds and large hedge fund managers. However, the latest data from Nov. 14 and Nov. 15 revealed $771 million in net ETF outflows, as investors decided to take profits following the recent rally.
To understand how professional traders are positioned, it's essential to analyze Bitcoin futures and margin markets. For example, sustained demand for leveraged BTC futures indicates bullish sentiment, while increased use of price hedging suggests that whales and arbitrage desks lack confidence in the current price momentum.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch
The Bitcoin 2-month futures premium (basis rate) surged to 17% on Nov. 18, far exceeding the 5% to 10% neutral threshold. This level of optimism was last observed almost eight months ago, in late March, when Bitcoin successfully defended the $64,000 level after two weeks of downward pressure.
To further assess traders' sentiment, it's essential to analyze BTC margin markets. Unlike derivatives contracts, which always require a buyer and a seller, margin markets allow traders to borrow stablecoins to buy spot Bitcoin. Similarly, bearish traders can borrow BTC to create short positions, betting on a price decline.
Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: OKX
Currently, the Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio at OKX is 14 times in favor of longs (buyers). Historically, periods of excessive confidence have driven the indicator above 40 times, while levels below 5 times favoring longs are generally considered bearish.
Ultimately, Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets signal strong bullish momentum, regardless of the concentration of buy-side activity driven by MicroStrategy. The lack of a significant impact from the retest of the $88,700 level on Nov. 17 further suggests that investors are not ready to exit at the first negative price swing.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
