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It's not surprising that analysts expect to see negative short-term price action if a bitcoin spot ETF is rejected by the SEC.

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• Analysts, however, pointed out that bitcoin certainly doesn't hinge its existence on an ETF.

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While markets appear to have fully embraced the idea that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot bitcoin ETF (timing unclear), it's worth considering the chance of continued rejections and what that might mean for the price of the crypto.

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It's no surprise that analysts believe there would be at least some negative short-term price impact on SEC rejections, but what to expect following the knee-jerk reaction?

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"We could see a move downward and the target could be below $30,000," said Laurent Kssis, a crypto trading adviser at CEC Capital.🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Any decline, Ksiss noted, would have to be balanced against other bullish catalysts, such as the approaching halving. "A cluster at $25,000 is highly unlikely unless the SEC is categorical, but I sense it will be a back-to-the- drawing-board situation and hope will still be in the back of everyone's mind."

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"If the ETF doesn't get approved, I anticipate it would be a significant letdown for the market," said Martin Leinweber, a product strategist at MarketVector Indexes. "The spot Bitcoin ETF is often viewed as a hallmark of institutional acceptance and integration into mainstream financial systems.

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