一些总结，非投资建议。


2017年是ICO时代，公开募资直接替代了VC和PE，所以17-18年的牛市属于OG站台，属于代投。只要抢到份额就能赚钱。

2021年defi崛起，实际市场开始多元化分流了，冲土狗套娃只要跑得快就能赚钱.

ieo那时候还可以跟项目方谈放一部分份额出来给用户，所以上线普遍订价偏低，买新不买旧也是这个时期的典型特征。

但现在ieo在大部分国家合规普遍认为有法律风险，所以只能空投，市场定价，意味着如果流通量大，开盘价格低项目相对表现平稳，比如BB，Lista，但相较于21年，还是拉涨太快，缺乏充足的洗盘过程。

2024年这波的上涨由BTC ETF启动，这波的聪明钱属于天王级项目和撸毛工作室，他们相亲相爱，一起制造了一波漂亮的数据，一边项目方可以从VC手里融到更多钱 (如果你观察市场头部VC，都是十亿美金以上的规模,这确实会推高好项目定价),而另外一边，手里又有钱又有用户的项目方底气十足，链上有百万用户，某个平台上不上无所谓，多的是cex要上，没有cex还有dex，再不济自己链上就有Dex。

交易平台并不掌握定价权，所以对于估值很高的项目，大家还是看看基本面，不要只看市值，最好再看看流通量。

到今天，确实市场又变了。撸毛工作室和L2项目的自相残杀演变成闹剧，撸毛时代可能要结束了。当前无论一二级市场都有了更多专业玩家，他们有各种工具实现风险对冲，但也扩大了市场规模，当前作为普通的投资者，用2017的ICO，2021的IEO、套娃，甚至2023的撸毛策略恐怕不适配今天的市场。

是不是缺乏VC投资，更少项目方，就会是一个更健康的市场呢？每一个周期都会有一些项目穿越牛熊，也有无数的天王级项目倒在路上，无论web2，还是web3，创业成功是极少数，而跨越鸿沟、穿越周期的项目更是凤毛麟角。

美国区块链法案和比特币的ETF基金通过，现在区块链时代就类似于2000年互联网，只要选好赛道，XDAO技术定投主流币，未来几十上百倍收益是打底的……就看你能不能坚持了

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。


～明道


Some summary, not investment advice.

2017 is the ICO era, and public fundraising has directly replaced VC and PE. Therefore, the bull market in 2017-18 belongs to the OG platform and belongs to agency investment. As long as you grab a share, you can make money.


With the rise of defi in 2021, the actual market has begun to diversify and diversify. You can make money as long as you run fast.

At that time, IEO could also negotiate with the project team to release a portion of the shares to users, so the prices for launches were generally low, and buying new rather than old was also a typical feature of this period.

But now IEO compliance in most countries is generally considered to have legal risks, so it can only be airdropped and market priced, which means that if the circulation is large and the opening price is low, the performance of the project is relatively stable, such as BB and Lista, but compared to 21 years, It still rose too fast and lacked sufficient washing process.

This wave of rise in 2024 was started by BTC ETF. This wave of smart money belongs to king-level projects and Lumao Studio. They love each other and create a wave of beautiful data together. On the one hand, the project can raise more money from VCs. There is a lot of money (if you look at the leading VCs in the market, they are all over one billion US dollars, which will indeed push up the pricing of good projects), and on the other side, projects with money and users are full of confidence, and on-chain There are millions of users. It doesn’t matter if a certain platform is not available. Most of them need CEX. If there is no CEX, there will still be Dex. If not, there will be Dex on your own chain.

The trading platform does not have pricing power, so for projects with high valuations, it is better to look at the fundamentals, not just the market value, but also the circulation volume.

Today, it is true that the market has changed again. The fight between Lumao Studio and L2 Project has turned into a farce, and the era of Lumao may be coming to an end. Currently, there are more professional players in both the primary and secondary markets. They have various tools to hedge risks, but they have also expanded the market size. Currently, as ordinary investors, they use ICO in 2017, IEO in 2021, matryoshka dolls, and even I’m afraid the hair grooming strategy in 2023 is not suitable for today’s market.

Is there a lack of VC investment and fewer project parties, which will lead to a healthier market? In every cycle, there will be some projects that go through bulls and bears, and there are countless king-level projects that fall on the road. Whether web2 or web3, entrepreneurial success is very rare, and projects that cross the gap and cross the cycle are even rarer.

The U.S. Blockchain Act and the Bitcoin ETF fund have been passed. The current blockchain era is similar to the Internet in 2000. As long as you choose the right track and XDAO technology is determined to invest in mainstream currencies, the future returns will be dozens or hundreds of times... See if you can hold on

Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.


~MingDao