Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $73,800 on Nov. 6 as traders tensely await the result of the US presidential election.
At the start of the New York open, Bitcoin initially showed strength, rallying in excess of 3% to hit an intra-day high at $70,577 as “US presidential elections-related volatility” spiked in the crypto market.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $74,957, after briefly tapping the $75,000 price level, according to TradingView data.
For the bulk of 2024, traders have expressed positive views regarding Bitcon’s price potential if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the election, and throughout the year, the Republican and Democratic candidates have evolved their policy views on regulation within the cryptocurrency industry.
On Nov. 5, Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester suggested that Trump favoring elections news has also been connected to rallies in Bitcoin price.
The bitcoin price is closely tracking the US elections. Each time there's good news for Trump, it moves up. pic.twitter.com/mMgifTaBWx
— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) November 5, 2024
Is Bitcoin’s rally correlated with Trump’s rising odds?
Bitcoin price is seemingly aligned with Trump’s rising odds on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket.
On Nov. 5, Bitcoin price rallied back above $70,000 as Trump’s predicted odds of a victory pushed back above 60%, while Harris’ slid below 39%.
Donald Trump’s election win odds hit 80% on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
Bitcoin price volatility is expected to remain after the US elections
Despite hitting an all-time high, traders expect Bitcoin price to remain volatile and changes in market participants’ positioning reflect this sentiment.
On Nov. 4, a rare day of robust outflows from the Spot Bitcoin ETFs was witnessed. Total outflows reached $541.1 million as Fidelity, ArkInvest, Bitwise, Grayscale and GBTC saw selling. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT saw $38.3 million in inflows.
Bitcoin ETF flows ($USD million). Source: Farside Investors
A series of protective measures were also observed in the Bitcoin options market, a point that was thoroughly discussed by Pelion Capital founder Tony Stewart.
Yesterday's purchase of Nov29 70k Calls on CME is the largest one-clip trade we've seen in a while - $250m notional, $14.3m premium, and adds to an existing $125m position just in that one Strike.
CME has added a similar notional clip (but lower premium) in Nov29 85k Calls, and… https://t.co/csZwVcwhnG
— Tony Stewart (@PelionCap) November 5, 2024
Adding a bit of color and translation to Stewart’s comment, Cointelegraph’s options analyst Marcel Pechman said,
“Traders are overall more bullish, especially for Nov. 7, Nov. 15, and Nov. 29. Most new bets were on prices at 72,000 to 75,000 or higher. The notable buy of $64,000 puts suggests some fear and market makers face higher risk if Bitcoin drops, as they sold puts at lower prices.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
