Post-Election Volatility May Propel Bitcoin Toward New Record Highs
Analysts anticipate heightened price volatility for Bitcoin following the United States presidential election, with some predicting this could catalyze a rally toward an all-time high above $73,800.
As of 8:05 am UTC on election day, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stable just under the $69,000 mark. Bitfinex analysts attribute the current low volatility to cautious market sentiment surrounding the election. However, they believe that an increase in post-election volatility could drive price appreciation. The analysts cautioned that a lack of expected volatility could suggest deeper, bearish corrections in Bitcoin’s near-term performance, adding that price apathy in the options market often signals bearish sentiment rather than active put buying.
Analysts at Sygnum noted that a potential Trump win might further support a Bitcoin rally, although a similar outcome is possible if Vice President Kamala Harris assumes the presidency. They added, “Post-election, market momentum is likely to continue upward, buoyed by anticipated regulatory and legislative clarity in the U.S. as the new administration takes office in January. This trajectory may hold regardless of the election result, but sentiment favors a stronger rally under a Trump victory.”
Just days before the election, Bitcoin approached its all-time high, reaching $73,600 on October 29—the highest level since March.
Is This the End of the “Trump Trade” for Bitcoin?
The recent October rally in Bitcoin has been termed a “Trump pump” by some investors, who correlated rising prices with Trump’s improving election odds. Bitfinex analysts, however, suggest that this “Trump Trade” effect might dissipate after the election, asserting that it largely reflects pre-election speculation. Other experts see Bitcoin’s October gains as a hedge against Trump’s potential victory but caution that this rally lacks the broader macroeconomic support necessary for sustaining new highs.
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