Ethereum’s price has dragged behind Bitcoin’s as the US presidential election approaches.
Since January, Bitcoin has soared 62% while Ethereum rose just 7%, according to CoinGecko.
While some argue that the overall crypto market would react more favourably if Donald Trump were elected, others reason that Kamala Harris winning would cause Ethereum’s price to soar.
That’s because many predict Harris will block the further approval of any new spot crypto exchange-traded funds, including those of Ethereum’s top competitor — Solana.
These new ETFs “won’t happen if Harris wins, regardless of the issuer,” said Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
With fewer rivals in the ETF space, Ethereum could expand its market share and see its price supported by improved ETF performance.
Ethereum ETF outlook
It’s not just Ethereum’s price that has underwhelmed compared to Bitcoin.
Since their July market debut, Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows of nearly $500 million while the price of Ether has fallen around 30%.
Now trading at around $2,450, Ethereum is just 11% off of sweeping its yearly lows.
Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, have raked in over $24 billion in inflows since January, while Bitcoin itself climbed over 60%.
Earlier this year, ETFStore president Nate Geraci predicted that “spot Ether ETFs will be a bigger deal than everyone thinks,” arguing that, given Ethereum’s market value was one-third that of Bitcoin, these ETFs could capture a comparable level of inflows.
‘Might take a while’
This hasn’t panned out so far, but he remains optimistic.
Geraci recently doubled down on this prediction, saying that he expects Ether ETF inflows to pick up soon but that they “just might take a while.”
However, he doesn’t agree that a Harris win would be better for Ethereum. If Trump wins, Geraci said, it would speed up the approval of Ether staking and options trading features for ETFs that could attract more investors and inflows.
IMO, staking in eth ETFs will happen regardless…
Will just happen sooner under Trump admin.
Also in-kind creation/redemption & options trading. https://t.co/3OdQP7eTEx
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) November 4, 2024
Bernstein analysts meanwhile argue that Ethereum’s success as an asset will hinge on regulations surrounding its utility features like stablecoin payments and asset tokenization.
While Harris hasn’t outlined any specific crypto regulations regarding these features, her emphasis on crypto competitiveness, adoption, and consumer protection suggests a regulatory approach that may ultimately work in Ethereum’s favour.
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin is down 0.3% over the past 24 hours to $68,233.
Ethereum is down 1% to trade at $2,428.
What we’re reading
Six experts on where Bitcoin’s price will land after the election — DL News
Immutable was issued a Wells Notice just before the election. Does the SEC have time to follow through? — Unchained
Andreessen Horowitz donates $23m to crypto super PAC Fairshake for 2026 elections — CoinDesk
Memecoin for beloved squirrel ‘Peanut’ passes $120m market cap — DL News
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.
