Bitcoin is back around $71,000, a price point that previously signaled peak excitement and retail frenzy in March when $BTC hit the same level. But here’s a surprising twist: despite the identical price, the Coinbase app has fallen dramatically in App Store rankings, plunging from #20 in March to #482 now.
This shift raises an intriguing question for crypto enthusiasts and analysts alike: how much higher can Bitcoin go if retail interest isn’t yet back? In early 2021 and again in 2023, BTC’s price surged as waves of retail traders, FOMO-driven buyers, and social media buzz propelled prices higher. Yet this time around, the current bull run is largely driven by institutional investors, ETFs, and long-term holders, with little sign of the retail speculation that historically pushes prices to new heights.
Retail’s Absence: A Key Factor
Bitcoin’s last two rallies were marked by retail involvement—most visibly through elevated downloads of trading apps like Coinbase, Binance, and Robinhood. In March, Coinbase’s high rank in the App Store underscored this retail surge. However, its slide to #482 today highlights a stark contrast: retail traders aren’t flooding in, despite the price recovery.
But why is retail still on the sidelines? One reason could be the lingering impact of last year’s regulatory crackdowns and market crashes, which burned many newcomers. With cautious optimism, some investors might be waiting for clearer regulatory guidance or a sustained rally before diving back in.
Institutional Influence
The narrative behind this rally differs substantially. Large institutions, Bitcoin ETFs, and renewed interest from long-term holders are leading the charge, positioning Bitcoin more as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty than a speculative asset. Institutions may be responding to global macroeconomic factors, like inflation and geopolitical tensions, that reinforce Bitcoin’s appeal as a “digital gold.” The entry of Bitcoin ETFs could also broaden exposure, drawing in investors from traditional finance sectors who see BTC as a portfolio diversifier.
The Potential for Higher Highs
Without retail-driven FOMO at play, this price surge might just be the start. Traditionally, retail interest follows institutional inflows. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could have significant room to grow once retail inevitably re-enters the scene. A full-scale return of retail would likely push Bitcoin past its previous highs, given that the groundwork from institutions has already paved the way.
In essence, Bitcoin’s current rally could be setting up for an even greater spike. The price is $71,000 now, but if the excitement and buying pressure from retail markets return, we might witness new all-time highs beyond what’s been seen in past bull cycles.
In short, this phase could be the "calm before the storm." Bitcoin has returned to a peak price without retail involvement, and if retail does return, it’s “scary” just how much higher BTC could go.