October is proving to be a solid month for Bitcoin (BTC) as the price is nearing the 2023 high at $31,805. Generally, major resistances are not cleared in the first instance as the bears come out in full force to guard the level. Therefore, a minor dip is to be expected, but that should not be considered as the start of a negative sentiment.
Buyers regroup at lower levels and try to form a higher floor. That triggers further buying and starts a rally. This is a possibility in Bitcoin but risks remain. While the cooling of the United States dollar index (DXY) is a positive sign, the weakness in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a negative sign.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Another risk to the rising cryptocurrency markets could come from the surging 10-year Treasury yield which once again rose above 5%. The rise in the yields show that the market participants are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near future.
Could the frustration from the U.S. equities markets drive investors to the cryptocurrency markets? Will Bitcoin decouple from the S&P 500 Index and extend its up-move? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The bears successfully held the retest of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 Index. The failure to shove the price above the 50-day simple moving average (4,382) attracted aggressive selling by the bears.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
The index dropped below the crucial support at 4,216 on Oct. 23 but the bulls are trying to halt the decline. Any recovery attempt is likely to face strong selling at the 20-day exponential moving average (4,317) and then at the 50-day SMA. The bulls will have to thrust the price above 4,400 to signal that the correction may be over.
If the price turns down and maintains below 4,216, the selling may accelerate further and the index could nosedive toward the pattern target of 4,088.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. The bulls tried to push the price toward the local high of 107.35 but the bears held their ground.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
Sellers are attempting to sustain the price below the breakout level of 106. If they manage to do that, the index may witness profit booking and tumble to the 50-day SMA ($105) and then to 104.50. This zone is likely to witness solid buying by the bulls.
If the price rebounds off this zone, the bulls will again try to propel the index above 107.35. If they can pull it off, the index may surge to 108 and eventually to 111.
On the contrary, if the price slides below 104.50, it will indicate that the bears are back in the game. The index may then slump to 103.
Bitcoin price analysis
After struggling to sustain above $30,000 for the past three days, the bulls made a decisive move on Oct. 23 and pushed the price to $31,000.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into the overbought territory, indicating that a consolidation or correction is possible in the short term. On the way down, if bulls do not allow the price to slip below $30,000, it will suggest that every minor dip is being purchased. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the hurdle at $31,000.
If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $32,400. The bears are expected to defend this level with all their might because if the $32,400 resistance is cleared, the pair may soar to $40,000.
Contrarily, if the price turns down sharply and breaks below $30,000, it will suggest that traders are booking profits. That may sink the price to the 20-day EMA ($28,428).
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) broke above the moving averages on Oct. 21, indicating that the bulls continue to buy the dips to the strong support at $1,531.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($1,608) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip. The ETH/USDT pair could rise to $1,746 where the bears will try to stall the up-move.
If bulls do not give up much ground from this level, the likelihood of a rally above $1,746 increases. The pair could then move up to $1,880. Instead, if the price turns down sharply from $1,746, it will indicate that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) broke and closed above the downtrend line on Oct. 22, invalidating the bearish descending triangle pattern. The failure of a bearish setup is a bullish sign.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The BNB/USDT pair has reached the horizontal resistance at $223. If this obstacle is overcome, the pair could rally to $243 and thereafter to $250. The bears are expected to guard this zone with vigor.
If bears want to make a comeback, they will have to quickly drag the price below the moving averages. That may open the doors for a retest of the vital support at $203. A slide below this level could start the next leg of the downtrend to $183.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) rose above the moving averages on Oct. 19 and the bulls have maintained the price above this level since then.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will try to push the price to the overhead resistance at $0.56. In a range, traders generally sell the rally to the resistance. If the price turns down sharply from $0.56, it will suggest that the XRP/USDT pair may extend its stay inside the range for some more time.
Both moving averages are sloping up gradually and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. If buyers kick the price above $0.56, the pair may start a rally to $0.66 and subsequently to $0.71.
Solana price analysis
The bears tried to start a pullback in Solana (SOL) on Oct. 22 but the bulls did not give up much ground. This suggests that the bulls are in no hurry to close their positions as they expect the up-move to continue.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buying resumed on Oct. 23 and the bulls started the upward journey toward the pattern target of $32.81 but the bears again sold at higher levels.
The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the RSI into overbought territory, indicating that a minor correction or consolidation is possible in the near term. If the SOL/USDT pair continues lower from the current level, the bulls will try to arrest the decline at $27.12 and then at the 20-day EMA ($24.56).
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) turned up sharply from $0.24 on Oct. 19 and rose above the moving averages on Oct. 21.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buying picked up further and the bulls are trying to drive the price above the overhead zone between $0.27 and $0.28. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair will complete a triple bottom pattern, signaling the start of a sustained recovery. The pair may rise to $0.32 and thereafter to $0.38.
If bears want to prevent this up-move, they will have to tug the price back below the moving averages. The advantage will shift in favor of the bears on a break and close below $0.24.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke and closed above the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on Oct. 22, indicating the start of a relief rally.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($0.06) has started to turn up and the RSI has risen into the positive zone, indicating that the bulls are trying to seize control. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.07. This level may again act as a hurdle but if crossed, the pair may jump to $0.08.
The important support to watch on the downside is $0.06. If this level gets taken out, it will suggest that the bears are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then slide to the critical support at $0.055.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) broke above the immediate resistance at $2.18 on Oct. 22, indicating that the corrective phase is ending.
TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. The TON/USDT pair could rise to $2.31 and then to $2.59. This level is likely to witness strong selling by the bears.
On any dips, the bulls are likely to defend the moving averages. A break and close below this support will indicate that the bulls may be losing their grip. That could pull the price down to $1.89.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
