The market’s expectation of interest rate cuts continues to fuel optimism in the cryptocurrency space. BTC ETFs are seeing steady capital inflows from major institutions, and recent news suggesting the approval of ETF terms has drawn significant attention from the community. While ETH has been lagging a bit in this area, with limited traffic from traditional finance and selling pressure from Grayscale’s ETHE, its recent price rise compared to BTC has been a hot topic. After briefly touching $2,700 yesterday — an event quickly picked up by the media — the gains were swiftly erased due to strong resistance. After a day of fluctuations, ETH ultimately closed nearly flat.

Source: TradingView

Source: Deribit (as of 24SEP 16:00 UTC + 8)

Implied volatility showed a positive correlation with the benchmark’s fluctuations in certain areas. After a wave of price corrections, it sharply declined, bringing the front end back to the lower percentile range seen over the past three months. This aligns with the range-bound market and the actual volatility index, which has been falling for several days. While a volatility premium still exists, caution is needed regarding tail risks, particularly in the upward direction.

Source: SignalPlus

Source: SignalPlus

From a volatility skew perspective, the impact of trading volume over the past 24 hours is evident in the slope of the curve. Specifically, the sell-off of BTC put options at the end of September confirmed the market’s confidence in short-term price stability and reflected a bullish outlook through price differences. However, on the flip side, strong demand for the 55k Put at the end of October shifted the curve toward a bearish stance in the mid-range, becoming a focal point of market discussions. ETH trading volume also concentrated around the end of September and October. The sell-off of the 2.3k Put at the end of October mirrored BTC’s demand, highlighting the market’s divergence in cross-currency correlation. However, ETH’s recent unexpected performance likely strengthened bullish demand in September, pushing skew levels to a local high at expiration.

Source: SignalPlus，BTC Vol Skew & Flow

Source: SignalPlus，BTC Vol Skew & Flow

Source: SignalPlus，ETH Vol Skew & Flow

Source: SignalPlus，ETH Vol Skew & Flow