On Monday, Apple introduced multiple new products, including four new models of iPhone: iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max.
Later that day, in an interview with Bloomberg Intelligence, Mark Gurman, Bloomberg’s Chief Correspondent on Global Technology, shared his thoughts on the upcoming release of the iPhone 16 and addressed speculations about an Apple super cycle. Gurman provided a comprehensive breakdown of Apple’s strategy, highlighting why he remains skeptical about the possibility of a super cycle in the near future.
Gurman began by addressing the supply chain data, noting that reports suggest a potential annual decline in iPhone unit shipments. However, he clarified that this decline in shipments does not necessarily mean a drop in revenue. He emphasized that Apple continues to add new features to its higher-end models, particularly making the lower-end Pro models more attractive to consumers. This strategic move could result in customers opting for the $999 Pro model over the lower-priced versions, raising Apple’s Average Selling Price (ASP) for the iPhone lineup.
Despite these improvements, Gurman dismissed the likelihood of a super cycle, which he defined as a period marked by significant hardware changes. He pointed out that the iPhone 16 is not expected to introduce groundbreaking changes and that the much-anticipated Apple Intelligence features are still in development. According to Gurman, these new AI-driven features, such as notification summaries, call recording, automated transcriptions, and Gen Emojis, won’t be fully functional until at least December 2024. As a result, he advised that expectations for a super cycle in 2024 should be tempered, with the iPhone 17 release in September 2025 likely offering more significant upgrades.
Gurman then elaborated on Apple Intelligence, explaining that this AI platform, branded as Apple’s version of artificial intelligence, is set to debut with iOS 18.1. He explained that Apple Intelligence will roll out features such as voice memo transcriptions, voice recording in the Notes app, and the ability to create Gen Emojis—features that are expected to appeal to younger users. Gurman shared a personal anecdote about how much his daughter enjoys the Gen Emojis, underlining how these features are likely to resonate with certain demographics. Despite the appeal of these features, he questioned how they could drive iPhone 16 sales when they wouldn’t be available until months after the phone’s release.
One key reason Gurman is skeptical of an imminent super cycle is the timeline for Apple Intelligence’s rollout. He noted that, unlike previous software updates that were released annually in September, Apple is opting for a gradual release of its AI features over six to nine months. This shift, Gurman explained, is because Apple Intelligence simply isn’t ready. He attributed this delay to Apple’s relatively late response to the AI boom, which accelerated only after the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. As a result, Apple has been rushing its development process, condensing what would normally be a three-to-four-year cycle into less than two years.
Gurman also addressed the broader concept of super cycles, explaining why he believes they are becoming increasingly rare for Apple. He recalled the last true iPhone super cycle, which occurred in 2014 with the release of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. He said that two major factors contributed to that super cycle: the significant increase in screen sizes and Apple’s deal with China Mobile, the world’s largest wireless carrier, which opened up a massive new market for iPhone sales. Another major bump occurred in 2017 with the introduction of the iPhone X, which raised starting prices by $300 and introduced Face ID. The release of the iPhone 12 in 2020, which brought 5G connectivity to all models, also resulted in a notable sales boost.
However, Gurman pointed out that since the release of the iPhone 12, there haven’t been any major technological leaps that could trigger a similar super cycle. While it’s possible that Apple could see another super cycle with the release of the iPhone 17 in 2025, Gurman stressed that consumers should not expect one this year.
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