According to a recent analysis by on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin's historical cycles suggest a significant rally might be on the horizon for 2025.
According to IntoTheBlock, historically, the average duration between Bitcoin's halving events and the subsequent peak is approximately 480 days. This pattern places the next anticipated peak in the summer of 2025.
Bitcoin's halving events, which occur roughly every four years, reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half. The last Bitcoin halving happened on April 20, 2024, at the block height of 840,000. Bitcoin's block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
This chart shows the returns in each halving cycle🔴The current cycle marks a ~12% price decrease from its halving price of $63.9K🟢Historically, the average time between Bitcoin's halving event and the next peak is around 480 days, which would place it in the summer of 2025. pic.twitter.com/ZTraSvbegk
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) September 7, 2024
The halving events have historically been followed by substantial price increases, as the reduced supply of new Bitcoin entering the market often leads to increased demand.
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In the current cycle, Bitcoin's price has seen a decline of nearly 12% from its halving price of $63,900. While this decrease might seem discouraging in the short term, it is not unprecedented. Past cycles have also experienced periods of consolidation or minor declines before the market gathered momentum for a significant rally.
The current market behavior suggests a period of accumulation, where investors and institutions may be positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated price surge.
Bitcoin faces bearish September
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had dropped 0.26% in the previous 24 hours to $54,398. September has historically been a challenging month for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, and the performance of Bitcoin's price in the first week adds credence to the narrative.
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Bitcoin's price has fallen 8% this month, exceeding the decade-long average decrease of 5%. September is one of only two months with average losses since 2013, with June being the only other negative month with an average price movement of -0.35% for that period. On average, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin in the last decade.
However, Bitcoin's dip in September has frequently been followed by increases. Bitcoin has often recorded increases in October, a month regarded to as "Uptober." Since 2013, Bitcoin has had an average decline of 5% in September, followed by a 22% gain in October and a 46% increase in November in the 2021 crypto market bull run.
