Jason Pizzino, a crypto analyst, shared insights on Bitcoin’s price movement and market indicators in a YouTube video titled “Bitcoin PUMPING: This Indicator ALWAYS Starts a Massive Move! (Signal is Flashing)”. The analyst suggests that BTC price is pumping as the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator is about to start a ‘massive’ move.
Pizzino points out that while the market has been relatively stagnant, such periods often precede substantial movements, provided the macro bull market persists.
The analyst delves into stock market analysis. He discusses seasonal patterns, noting that the end of the third quarter into the fourth quarter typically sees a correction followed by a positive move around Halloween.
The analyst said that the Bitcoin market also has a similar pattern to the stock market. Thus, as capital inflows start to go to stocks, some money will also be deposited into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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Pizzino notes that Bitcoin is trading between the mid-$50,000s and low $60,000s, with $61,500 being a key level to watch for bullish confirmation. He also mentions that the total cryptocurrency market cap is showing relative strength.
How the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator Works
The speaker introduced the “zweig breadth thrust” as an indicator that identifies significant market momentum. According to the speaker, this indicator is particularly valuable because it has historically signaled major market moves every time it appears.
The zweig breadth thrust works by tracking the percentage of stocks that move from an oversold condition (below 40%) to an overbought condition (above 61.5%) within a 10-day period. In this video, the speaker mentioned that they adjusted the indicator slightly to consider a crossing above 60%, signaling an overbought market.
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The speaker explained that this indicator often flashes repeatedly at market lows and continues to do so until the market begins to rise and approach its highs. This pattern makes the indicator a reliable signal of a significant move.
They gave historical examples where the zweig breadth thrust has flashed multiple times during market bottoms, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009. They pointed out that during the GFC, even though the market was highly fearful, the indicator showed up at the bottom, signaling the beginning of a significant market recovery.
The speaker emphasized that whenever the zweig breadth thrust has appeared, it has led to substantial market moves. They also noted that while the indicator is generally reliable, there are occasions where it appears late in a bull market.
This happens when late investors and traders start buying into the market, often too late, and the indicator flashes again. Despite these late signals, the speaker cautioned that no indicator is perfect, and there are always risks involved.
The speaker provided statistics to illustrate the indicator’s reliability:
One year after the signal appears, there is a 91% chance of a market win.
Six months later, there is an 85% chance of a win.
Three months later, there is an 83% chance of a win.
However, they cautioned against using the indicator for short-term trading, as the win rate for a one-week timeframe is only 64%, which they described as “not great.”
Finally, Pizzino offers advice on exit strategies and market planning, emphasizing the importance of treating trading as a business and avoiding emotional attachments to positions. He suggests using swing indicators to identify trend breakdowns as potential selling opportunities during bull markets.
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