After flirting with the $68,000 level on July 22, Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 6% correction in three days, erasing the gains from the prior week. From a bullish perspective, there is a positive indication as the $64,000 support held firmly.
Buyers stepped in to defend Bitcoin’s market capitalization at $1.25 trillion, slightly above the United Kingdom's British pound, valued at $1.15 trillion. Still, Bitcoin bears have macroeconomic data on their side, at least in the short term.
Bitcoin price drop coincides with the US stock market decline
Bitcoin’s price decline coincides with the Nasdaq index futures movement, which experienced a 4.9% correction between July 23 and July 24. Traders now question if the drivers behind the stock market decline, especially the tech names, justify the correlation with the cryptocurrency market. If investors’ concerns are mostly derived from economic recession fears, Bitcoin’s long-term appeal could present a buying opportunity.
Semiconductor stocks and those related to artificial intelligence infrastructure (AI) led the move, with Crowdstrike (CRWD) down 25.5% in a week, followed by Super Micro Computer (SMCI) down 12.6%, GlobalFoundries (GFS) down 12.2%, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) down 10.8%, and Intel Corp (INTC) down 10.5%. The market seems especially concerned with the perspective of AI demand, given how the investment in the sector has yet to result in profitability.
UBS Global Research’s Stephen Ju warned investors that the AI investment benefits in Google’s cloud platform are “difficult to discern” and should not be visible on the revenue line before mid-2025. In the second quarter, Google's parent company reported spending $2.2 billion building AI models. Consequently, Ju questions if the investment returns will be compromised, as the company will require higher capital expenditure for another two years, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
Strong macroeconomic data and a court case against Bitfinex
Recent macroeconomic data has also contributed to investors’ worsening sentiment. The United States economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, above the market consensus of 1.9%. Additionally, continuing jobless claims, which measure the number of people in the US receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, declined on a seasonally adjusted basis. This indicator typically serves as a proxy for hiring, a more forward-looking metric.
Recent economic indicators signal the success of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) strategy to curb inflation without causing a recession. The US central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range since 2023, but analysts expect two to three cuts by the end of 2024.
This data is somewhat negative for Bitcoin, as part of its appeal is as a hedge against inflation, a lower value of the US dollar, and decreased investor confidence in US Treasury securities. In other words, a strong economy makes alternative assets less appealing, regardless of the stock market's expectations for corporate earnings.
Related: Crypto has more potential than stocks, real estate — Kraken survey
Bitcoin investors are also concerned about the civil litigation case against the Bitfinex exchange and Tether company. The US District Court for the Southern District of New York allowed the class-action complaint to proceed to discovery on claims of a scheme to manipulate the market price for certain cryptocurrencies through the fraudulent issuance of unbacked Tether (USDT). The court released the redacted document with the latest updates on July 24.
It is worth noting that this is a civil case, and the claims presented have not yet been proven in court. Essentially, Bitfinex and Tether may ultimately have to pay a fine and adjust some of their procedures, but this process will likely take years to resolve fully. Therefore, even if the outcome is negative, there is nothing about this case that should cause imminent price pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s recent underperformance can most likely be attributed to strong macroeconomic data and investors’ fears of a bubble caused by the artificial intelligence hype.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
