All roads lead to the 31st July
31st July is the FOMC statement and Feds fund rate decision.(Interest rate)
Powell speaks tomorrow,he will just echo last week.
In the next 2 weeks we have a lot of high impact US data.
Usually all this data would be pro or anti crypto, now that is not so easy to decide.
As an example we have Core retail/retail sales, Unemployment this week, in the last 6 months we wanted retail sales to drop and unemployement to go higher, this shows the economy cooling.
Now these readings are basically lose/lose for crypto, they will either show the economy is not slowing (higher retail sales, lower unemployment), this could mean higher for longer, or they show the opposite, this could then mean the economy is about to go into recession, large holders wont rush to crypto if an economic recession/crash looms.
So basically now we just need them to come out as expected.
There is so much uncertaintly at the moment, yesterday proved that when Crypto rallied due to an assassination attemp on Trump, maybe it was the catalyst the market was waiting for, the coming days will show if it lasts.
I dont think Trump will be pro crypto after he is elected, i highly doubt he will make any serious pro crypto policy changes, Trump is pro USD.
Trump is pro spending, he wants to lower interest rates, lower taxes, free up spending money, that leads to more free money that can go into crypto.
Crypto people love to compare this bull run with the run in 2020-2021, you see all the charts showing how now compares to then.
What they dont say is that back then the Crypto Bullrun was funded by hundreds of Billions of government fiscal stimulus worlwide due to Covid, interest rates were 0%, also how the millenial and Gen Z population were stuck at home and trying to use that stimulus for other forms of income -> Crypto speculation
For now, like i have said in the last 2 weeks, my focus is more on the Gold, S&P500, DXY and bond markets.
These will give me a far greater indication to market sentiment.
peace
