◽️ Bitcoin: Short-Term Holder Behavior Analysis
Analysis of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cohort’s Cost Basis
Examining the Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort’s cost basis and the levels ±1 standard deviation from it shows where these price-sensitive holders might react:
• 🔴 Significant unrealized profit indicates an overheated market at $91.9k.
• 🟠 The break-even level is $64.4k, with the spot price currently below but trying to reclaim it.
• 🔵 Significant unrealized loss indicates an oversold market at $49.7k, aligning with the True Market Mean as a bull market break-point.
Only 7% of trading days have recorded prices below the -1SD band, making it relatively rare.
Conclusions and Strategy
From this chart, the following insights can be derived:
1. Unrealized profit and loss levels:
• Significant unrealized profit at around $91.9k, which may indicate an overheated market where investors might start taking profits.
• Significant unrealized loss at around $49.7k, which may indicate an oversold market where investors might start buying.
2. Break-even level:
• The current price of Bitcoin is trying to reclaim the break-even level at around $64.4k. If the price can stay above this level, it may indicate market strength.
3. Rarity of significant drops below -1SD:
• Prices have been recorded below the -1SD band in only 7% of trading days, suggesting that significant downward moves are relatively rare and may present good buying opportunities when they occur.
This is not investment advice but Consider exiting 70% of your position when Bitcoin reaches $97k.
This structured analysis provides a clear understanding of the Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort’s cost basis and the potential market reactions at various price levels, helping investors make informed decisions.
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