The German government has sold nearly all of its Bitcoin, and one particularly powerful technical indicator looks ready to signal a change in momentum. A rate cut in September now looks very likely, but when will the Bitcoin rally actually start?
50,000 $BTC nearly all sold but price holds
“The German Government is running out of Bitcoin”, is the latest X post update from Arkham Intelligence. The post states that on Thursday, the German Government sent 5,000 more $BTC to exchanges. This leaves only 4,925 in its wallet, which is just less than 10% of what it originally seized from Movie2k.
Judging by the amounts transferred and sold over the last several days, this last tranche could be sold by the end of today. 50,000 $BTC sold in a relatively short amount of time might, whilst having a dampening effect on the Bitcoin price, has not succeeded in pushing $BTC back down into a bear market.
Will the Bitcoin OGs sell?
The other major selling headwind of Mt. Gox creditors starting to receive their $BTC could also be another drag on the $BTC price over the next few weeks and months. That said, this has been known about for a long while, and it remains to be seen just how much of this $BTC will be sold by what are OGs in the Bitcoin space.
CPI data good but markets sink anyway
Good news for Bitcoin came on Thursday, when the CPI figures were announced. The data was better than expected, and this has led the market to predict a more likely rate cut in September. However, even on this positive news, the markets were down more or less across the board, with the Nasdaq down 2% on the day.
Source: TradingView
Chances of a Bitcoin rally?
So what are the chances of a Bitcoin rally? The price has now experienced a 27% reversal, which brings it more into line with previous bull market corrections. Does this mean there won’t be any more downside? This remains to be seen, and the market will be the judge of this.
However, that said, the weekly stochastic RSI is at the bottom, and a tentative cross up looks to be taking place. Monday’s opening will be the time to see whether the cross up has occurred, and real, powerful price momentum would only happen once the two indicator lines cross through the 20 level.
Nevertheless, if the $BTC price stays in the doldrums the stochastic RSI can remain at the bottom for quite some period of time. The rally is coming, but the wait for it may well continue.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
