三年前，NFT 热潮达到顶峰，月交易量达到数十亿美元，Bored Ape 游艇俱乐部也登上了《今夜秀》节目，如今，收藏类代币再次风靡一时，流行的 NFT 市场 OpenSea 也是如此。 
NFT 交易量最近创下了三个月以来的新高，在市场竞争对手 Magic Eden 完成自己的 ME 空投后，有关潜在的 OpenSea 代币的猜测正在升温。 
市场可能会也可能不会对此进行调侃，最近它向 X（以前的 Twitter）粉丝询问“您使用 OpenSea 多长时间了？”许多交易员认为这是对用户忠诚度的一种俏皮表示，这通常是平台确定代币空投分配的关键指标。

该公司最大的竞争对手 Blur 和 Magic Eden 都已向各自的用户完成了空投，后者在一周前向用户空投了超过 7 亿美元，OpenSea 曾在 2022 年以 133 亿美元的估值筹集资金后引领 NFT 世界，但此后随着新挑战者的到来而急剧下滑。
以下是我们所了解的有关 OpenSea 代币的可能性以及围绕该事件的猜测。
OpenSea 基金会成立
关于 OpenSea 代币空投的最大猜测来自最近在开曼群岛提交的 “OpenSea 基金会”申请。 
该文件立即引起了加密货币参与者的兴趣，其中最引人注目的是来自化名加密货币名人 Wale.Swoosh 的一篇帖子，该帖子在 X 上获得了超过 140 万次的点击量。

加密组织通常会创建一个基金会，作为其更成熟、面向消费者的品牌的独立实体，从历史上看，这些基金会随后成为沟通和促进代币空投的组织机构。 
虽然注册基金会并不能保证代币会随之而来，但最近向用户提供空投代币的其他组织都是通过各自的基金会这样做的。
最近的例子包括 Magic Eden 的 ME 基金会或以太坊第 2 层网络运动的 Movement Network 基金会。
OpenSea 的一位发言人向 Decrypt 证实该基金会确实是一个注册实体，但没有进一步评论与 OpenSea 的任何关联。
12 月 20 日，一个使用 OpenSea Foundation 名称的 X 帐户发布了 “ocean 进入聊天”的帖子，可能暗示 OCEAN 代币即将问世，这种关联变得更加清晰。

该账户于 2024 年 5 月创建，在平台上仅关注一个账户 - OpenSea，OpenSea 及其首席执行官 Devin Finzer 都通过各自的账户与该帖子进行了互动。
尽管细节仍然很少，但 OpenSea 基金会的一位发言人告诉 Decrypt：“更多信息即将公布。”
OpenSea 2.0 预告
尽管许多 NFT 交易者在过去几年中一直敦促 OpenSea 推出代币，但围绕潜在代币的猜测在 11 月达到高潮。 
当时，OpenSea 为一个完全重新构想的市场（名为 OpenSea 2.0）开放了一份候补名单，此前这家曾经的顶级 NFT 平台缩减了团队规模，以变得更加灵活并重新思考其模式。
OpenSea 首席执行官兼联合创始人 Devin Finzer 在 X 上发文称：“我们一直在 OpenSea 默默耕耘，要想真正创新，有时你必须退后一步，重新想象一切。” 
等候名单开放后不久，OpenSea 2.0 的早期测试版用户就开始分享新功能的片段，这只会引发代币猜测。

在一个获得超过 360,000 次浏览量的帖子中，一位名为 john.weth 的匿名 beta 测试员展示了排行榜和积分耕作活动，暗示追溯奖励即将到来 - 尽管“如何以及采取何种措施”仍有待确定。
OpenSea 2.0 之前预计将于 12 月某个时候推出，但目前尚未提供任何更新，到目前为止，其候补名单已经收集了超过一百万个钱包。
交易员下注
尽管有关代币发行的细节尚不清楚，但根据 Polymarket 上的预测市场，加密货币投注者认为 OpenSea 空投的可能性正在增加。
例如，OpenSea 代币在 2024 年之前发布的几率现在已升至近 60%，上周上涨了 40%，12 月 20 日上午，这一几率曾一度跌至 20%，但在 OpenSea 基金会账户在 X 上发布消息后，这一几率急剧上升。
Polymarket 上其他可用的预测市场的空投赔率也随之上升。

一个允许用户押注 2025 年 4 月之前 OpenSea 代币空投的市场目前交易率为 82%，到目前为止，市场上的押注金额只有 50,000 美元。
至于该代币能否成功？Polymarket 市场上已有超过 200 万美元的赌注，用于预测 OpenSea 代币在推出一周后能否以超过 10 亿美元的全面摊薄估值进行交易。
上周，市场对代币发行的预期下降了 5%，交易员认为发行代币的概率为 56%，如果代币在 12 月 31 日前无法发行，那么市场对代币发行的预期将为 50-50，而这种情况似乎越来越不可能出现。

#OpenSea #Polymarket #空投

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🚨 Jeff Park, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that the likelihood of creating a Bitcoin reserve in the US by 2025 is a mere 10%! 😱 This statement has shaken the crypto community 🌍, with many immediately discussing why America, claiming global leadership 🌎, is still not ready to embrace Bitcoin as a strategic asset 💎.

📢 Many followers supported the expert’s opinion, claiming that obtaining Congressional approval for such a reserve is almost impossible ❌. Furthermore, the new administration seems to not even consider Bitcoin as a priority, preferring to "save the old financial system" 💵🛠️.

💬 “America doesn’t need Bitcoin,” said one user, “MicroStrategy is already fulfilling this role with its massive reserves!” 🏢💰 But can a private company really replace government reserves? 🤔

🔮 Meanwhile, the analytics platform Polymarket estimates the likelihood of creating a Bitcoin reserve under President Trump in the first 100 days of his new term at 31%! 📈 This prediction seems much more optimistic, raising the question: could Bitcoin become a weapon in the battle for economic dominance? ⚔️

❓ What do you think? Will the US turn into a crypto-nation 🇺🇸🚀 or will Bitcoin stay outside of politics? Share your thoughts!
#MicroStrategy #Polymarket #bitcoin #2025

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, is likely to be prohibited by France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, after a huge amount of bets were placed on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Since the global audience engaged in prediction platforms, Polymarket experienced a record jump, with $450 million expected to be distributed to users following the victory of Donald Trump.
This increase of betting volume and large stakes has become a matter of concern for the French regulator because the platform offers unlicensed gambling services.$450 Million in Payouts Expected After U.S. Election Bets
Prediction markets, which are expected to increase their payout to election bettors to around $450m following Donald Trump’s projected win, are attracting increasing attention.
Although conventional polls pointed to a closer contest, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a steep rise in Trump’s chances in the last few days, indicating a strong divergence with poll-based expectations.
Among the active users of Polymarket, a French trader called “Theo” made a $26 million bet on Trump’s win and won $49 million. This big bet made Polymarket popular, as the French authorities paid attention to the platform and its popularity among French residents, which led to concerns about the compliance of the platform with French gambling legislation.
France’s ANJ Considers Blocking Access to PolymarketThe ANJ has claimed that Polymarket is involved in gambling which is only allowed in France by licensed operators. According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed gambling sites and is expected to restrict access to Polymarket soon.
An ANJ insider said: “Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.”
If put in place, the ban would prevent the usage of the application in France, despite the fact that users can still try to avoid the restriction by connecting to VPN. The ANJ could also try to influence media outlets and directories to stop advertising or linking to Polymarket and, thus, limit its audiences even more.
Regulatory Concerns Over Market ManipulationThe high level of activity on Polymarket has led to speculations that the platform may be used for market manipulation. Two blockchain analysis firms, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, recently revealed that there was potential wash trading within Polymarket’s U.S. presidential betting market where the same assets are bought and sold to simply create a fake market. This type of trading is rather manipulative and can lead to the distortion of signals on the market and mislead other participants.
The US Commodity ""Futures Trading Commission also has concerns about prediction markets and put forward a rule in May aiming at stricter regulation of such markets due to the potential for manipulation.
Although no final (decision) has been reached, regulatory actions could impact Polymarket’s ability to operate- freely in other markets, including the U.S.
#polymarket #BTC☀ #trump #BinanceSquareFamily

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has garnered significant user interest, yet many participants struggle with profitability. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon:
1. Market Volatility:
The unpredictability of outcomes can lead to substantial losses, even for experienced traders.
2. Complexity of Predictions:
Success often requires deep analysis and understanding of the events being bet on, which can be daunting for new users.
3. Transaction Fees:
High fees can erode potential profits, especially for smaller bets.
4. Learning Curve:
New users may find the platform challenging to navigate, leading to less informed decisions.
As interest continues to grow, users may need to refine their strategies and leverage data-driven insights to enhance their profitability.

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Bài viết này giới thiệu về Drift, một nền tảng dự đoán thị trường mới được xây dựng trên blockchain Solana. Nó thảo luận về việc ra mắt Drift và sự cạnh tranh với Polymarket. Drift cung cấp tốc độ nhanh hơn và chi phí thấp hơn bằng cách chạy trên Solana. Trong ngày đầu tiên, Drift thu hút hơn 3 triệu đô la thanh khoản. Người dùng có thể đặt cược vào nhiều sự kiện khác nhau, bao gồm cả cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Hoa Kỳ năm 2024. Tuy nhiên, Polymarket vẫn nắm giữ tổng số tiền cược lớn hơn đáng kể. Drift cung cấp cho người dùng khả năng kiếm lợi nhuận trong khi giữ vị trí và phòng ngừa rủi ro cho các vị trí.
Điểm nổi bật của Drift:
Tốc độ nhanh: Drift hoạt động trên blockchain Solana, được biết đến với tốc độ giao dịch nhanh chóng.Chi phí thấp: Solana có phí giao dịch thấp hơn so với Ethereum, giúp giảm chi phí cho người dùng.Thanh khoản cao: Drift thu hút hơn 3 triệu đô la thanh khoản trong ngày đầu tiên ra mắt.Đa dạng các sự kiện: Người dùng có thể đặt cược vào nhiều sự kiện khác nhau, bao gồm cả cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Hoa Kỳ năm 2024.Tính năng kiếm lợi nhuận: Drift cung cấp cho người dùng khả năng kiếm lợi nhuận trong khi giữ vị trí.Phòng ngừa rủi ro: Drift cung cấp các công cụ phòng ngừa rủi ro cho các vị trí.
So sánh với Polymarket:
Polymarket là một nền tảng dự đoán thị trường tương tự trên blockchain Ethereum. Polymarket có nhiều người dùng và thanh khoản hơn Drift. Polymarket cũng cho phép người dùng đặt cược vào nhiều sự kiện hơn. Tuy nhiên, Drift có tốc độ nhanh hơn và chi phí thấp hơn.
Tiềm năng phát triển của Drift:
Mặc dù mới ra mắt, Drift đã thu hút được sự chú ý của nhiều người dùng và nhà đầu tư. Token của Drift đã tăng 24% giá trị kể từ khi ra mắt. Với tốc độ phát triển nhanh chóng, Drift có tiềm năng trở thành một đối thủ cạnh tranh đáng gờm của Polymarket trong thị trường dự đoán thị trường.
#polymarket #drift