Bitcoin halving, all-time high, and altcoin season—the recipe for a bull run, or is it? First, Bitcoin's halving reduces its issuance rate, which sparks supply scarcity. After that, BTC rallies into its ATHs and is followed by a horde of pumped altcoins driven by investors who prefer higher, albeit riskier, returns. The altcoin season is then full on. Bitcoin had its most recent halving in May of this year, and soon after that, it smashed through the $100k mark—a historic milestone. Yet, the altcoin market is bleeding. Where is the usual rally? Is the golden recipe broken? The surge of institutional capital and the liquidity crunch from high interest rates, coupled with Trump’s positive yet bold take on crypto, have made one thing certain: this cycle will be unlike any we’ve seen before.
How Is This Cycle Any Different?
Every cycle has four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Even though the mechanism behind these stages is well-known, timing the market is one of the most sought-after skills. You try to predict when we enter a given stage to strategize your trades. However, even though cycles follow a predictable pattern, we must not forget the wider market context–and crypto has seen a lot in the past year.
Institutional Capital
The growing presence of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has reshaped its dynamics. Having taken 7th place as the biggest asset in the world, Bitcoin has become a new asset of choice for institutions, supported by the emergence and growth of crypto ETFs. Their increased involvement often brings greater price stability. Yet, for altcoins, it may not be good news. After all, fluctuations and big corrections redirect capital flow into altcoins. Less volatility means fewer returns that could circle back into the altcoin market.
This year has been special. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs has brought a significant capital inflow from traditional finance onto the crypto market. Institutional inflows into these ETFs have triggered a Bitcoin supply shock, strengthening its dominance. The demand for Bitcoin caused by ETFs directly influences Bitcoin dominance, currently sitting at around 56%, a meaningful metric often overlooked by novice traders. It measures BTC's market share relative to altcoins, offering insights into whether we're in a Bitcoin season (BTC outperforms) or an altcoin season (altcoins outperform). What does a strong BTC dominance with a stable Bitcoin price mean? Altcoins dumping. And in this cycle, Bitcoin spot ETFs prolonged Bitcoin dominance. This new variable was absent in previous bull runs and will make the 2025 altcoin season undeniably unique.

Macros: Liquidity And Regulations
If you ask any financial executive about the most important financial metric, they’ll tell you it’s liquidity. In 2023 and 2024, the US interest rates hiked to one of the highest numbers in a long while. Even though it’s dropped from 5.25% a year ago to 4.19% now, it’s still a relatively attractive yield for a risk-free asset. On the other hand, cutting interest rates often fuels crypto bull runs for a very simple reason–they create a favorable environment for riskier assets to thrive. After all, risk-free government debt at a 0.11% yield, like in 2021, is as attractive as losing your capital due to inflation. Low rates equal cheaper borrowing and increased liquidity, which, in turn, pushes investors to park their money for higher returns. Where? Yes, you’ve guessed it. Crypto.
The winning of Trump’s administration in the US has undoubtedly shaken the crypto world. The Bitcoin Act sparked a lively debate across the crypto and non-crypto circles. If passed, the Senate legislation would require the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to purchase 200,000 bitcoins annually within a period of five years to accumulate one million bitcoins. In other words–about 5% of the global supply. Needless to say, pro-crypto regulations are a very meaningful step for the widespread adoption of crypto assets, and Trump’s stance has proven to ignite a positive sentiment, with BTC hitting its ATH shortly after the future President confirmed his plans to create a BTC federal reserve.
With BTC keeping its dominance, high interest rates, and pro-crypto regulations in the US, should we expect a full-blown altcoin supercycle in 2025? That’s a billion-dollar question.
“Wen altszn”
If history has taught us anything, it’s that altcoin pumps often follow major Bitcoin moves. Yet, estimating just how big those price movements will be - or exactly how long after Bitcoin’s new all-time highs altcoins will moon–is impossible. David Siemer, the CEO of Wave Digital Assets, says: “I don't think we'll see such a dramatic altcoin season as 2021 in the near future, meaning BTC dominance falling below 40%. But we will see a huge increase in altcoin values as BTC continues to rise.” Siemer then adds that “for alts to break out like 2021 relative to BTC, the use (adoption) and value (revenue capture) of altcoins needs to increase by many orders of magnitude”, emphasizing that it may happen in at least 3 years. But once it begins, altcoin season itself can be easily recognized because of some quite bullish signals:
Rapid price growth with altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, especially large-cap altcoins. Multiple narratives drive this growth, not limited to single trends.Altcoin dominance soars like during the May 2021 altcoin season. These coins gained major ground in the market, with the combined market capitalization of the top 100 altcoins hitting 1.3x of Bitcoin.FOMO-driven sentiment, high trading volumes, and risk-on investors are fueling buying pressure, as well as price momentum.

Cane Island Digital Research has shared in its “Proof of Altseason” findings about the seasonality of altcoin rallies, showing ETH as a proxy for altcoin to experience a bullish market. In addition, it mentions a repeated pattern of the January-May altseason period.
Narrative Outperformance
Although the upcoming altcoin season may differ significantly from what we’re used to, certain sectors have secured their spots within the crypto space. After the $VIRTUAL token experienced a 24908.4% pump (that’s 249x), it’s safe to say that we’ve entered a new level of narrative dominance. While memecoins could outpace sectors like real-world assets or AI, AI agents are in a league of their own, often regarded as the driving force behind the next supercycle.
Artificial Intelligence is still at the top of its game, and with the progress of AI agents, the onchain AI economy has garnered a big chunk of mindshare, hitting its peak at 50% in 2024, according to Kaito AI. This trend will likely follow in 2025, driven by the unprecedented demand for AI services.
Institutional adoption, ignited by big names like BlackRock, has also impacted sectors like real-world assets, legitimizing tokenization as a fundamental component of the crypto world. While most of the attention is on AI and AI agents, traditional finance is exploring tokenization as a viable business option, with major banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs trying to disrupt the financial market.
How To Prepare For The Altcoin Season?
As we enter 2025, we must keep several things in mind before the altcoin season. First, Bitcoin dominance is your friend, so use it wisely to time your trades. Websites like BlockchainCenter.net can help you assess whether we’re in an altcoin or Bitcoin season. What’s important to keep in mind is:
• Crypto is largely sentiment-driven, so look for regulatory moves, macroeconomic trends, or crypto-native narratives (DeFi, AI agents, memecoins).
• Not all altcoins will follow the dynamics of BTC price. Historically, projects with strong fundamentals or those aligned with emerging narratives, like AI projects, perform better. But stick to quality over quantity and focus on projects with strong fundamentals, active teams, and, ideally, product-market fit that excites a large community.
• Corrections are healthy. They signal consolidation and allow investors to enter positions before the next leg up. Altcoin seasons often occur in the latter stages of a bull run. Be patient.
Altcoin Season 2025
The crypto market is maturing. Each cycle is a stepping stone and should be considered a learning lesson. While memecoins are still harvesting their fruits, new narratives are becoming more and more influential. But here is the most interesting part–the narratives trending right now, like AI agents, are not just passing trends. To top it all off, we now face a greater impact from macros and institutional adoption than any previous bull run. Does it mean we should expect different altcoin dynamics this time around? To some extent. We shouldn’t blindly follow the pattern from previous years, either. The question isn’t whether altcoin season will happen—it’s when and how different it will be from previous years. Buckle up.
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