The most feared macro event of them all, the yield curve inversion pivot... could it finally be happening?
#Bitcoin has only seen one of these before, during the 2020 black swan.
Why are people so scared of this?
It is an extremely accurate recession predictor, and now the yield curve is more inverted than ever before, seemingly already pivoting.
What is the pivot?
This happens when the 2 year treasury yield rate starts to outpace the 10 year.
Typically, the longer yield would have a higher rate, but when shorter yields are on the rise it shows investors are flocking to long-term rates and not confident in the short term. This in many cases leads to a recession.
There are many reflections of 2008 housing market crash and the 2000s dot com bubble crash, but not all pivots cause catastrophe.
The 1998 pivot did not end in a recession, and the 90's pivot led to a very mild one.
Who knows the extent of damage to the markets this will cause, there's no way to say for sure. Let's observe.
