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La multi ani #BinanceTurns7  

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自1984年以来几乎准确预测每届美国总统选举结果的美国历史学家利希特曼，预测民主党总统候选人、副总统哈里斯将赢得11月总统选举。美国大学教授利希特曼（Allan Lichtman）接受法新社采访时自信地说：“哈里斯将会获胜。” 他在受访前刚在马里兰州蒙哥马利县贝塞斯达（Bethesda）家中，公布了他每四年进行一次的总统选举预测。 40年来，利希特曼几乎每一次都能成功预测谁将入主白宫，鲜少失手。利希特曼完全不关注民调。他的预测是基于一系列适用于现任政府的正负命题。其中六个或更多关键钥匙为：政党授权、党内竞争、现任总统、第三党、短期经济、长期经济、政策变化、社会动荡、丑闻、外交／军事失败、外交／军事成功、现任者魅力，以及挑战者魅力。#美国总统选举

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特朗普 vs 哈里斯

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悟空的游戏故事线以《西游记》为背景，讲述孙悟空取经成佛后，不愿再上天庭工作，天庭不允，派神仙征讨，悟空发现金箍一直戴在头上，自己仍被“紧箍咒”控制。因此他有意战败，打碎自己将“六根”（眼、耳，鼻、舌、身、意）散布各处，期待后世人，也就是玩家所扮演的天命人，能集齐六根，复活一个没有金箍的齐天大圣。小时候只记得孙悟空助唐僧取了真经当上神仙，皆大欢喜。但游戏剧情揭露了一些更复杂的侧面，神仙也会贪婪恋权、天庭也会官僚虚伪，没有一尊佛是完美，也没有一个妖完全邪恶，确实是‘黑神话’。” 人物故事立体，主角叛逆又带着“斗罢艰险再出发”的精神，在玩的过程中有更多代入感和情感起伏。其实是寻找自己的过程

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There's been a hell of a lot of tough times in the past and a hell of a lot of good times in the past. There's been a hell of a lot of tough times in the past and a hell of a lot of good times in the past. What I can say however that this has definitely been one of the most tough times. Truly believe times will get bigger and better but the resilience people need this time is definitely very large and I honestly feel for new people. By Nova

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在过去40年中，美国联邦储备局曾八次启动降息周期，其中四次导致美国经济陷入衰退。但分析师预计，这次美国经济实现软着陆的可能性更高。信息服务公司Fitch Solutions旗下研究机构BMI在一份报告中预计，美联储今年的降息幅度将在50到75个基点，低于市场普遍预期的100个基点。从历史数据来看，过去40年中，美联储的降息周期平均持续约17个月，总降息幅度为345个基点。如果排除1987年和1998年这两个较短的降息周期，降息周期的平均时长为28个月，降息幅度则为444个基点。报告还预测，美联储将在2025年底之前的16个月内降息250个基点。然而，考虑到通货膨胀压力仍在，且家庭财务状况良好，预计这次降息周期将比历史平均水平稍短，因为家庭对降息的反应速度会相对较快。值得注意的是，过去的降息周期通常伴随着经济衰退。自1984年以来的八次降息中，有一半的周期伴随着经济衰退!

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