Litecoin (LTC) surged by roughly 7.5% in the last 24 hours, climbing to around $70.50 on Oct. 16 as traders piled into the market following the buzz around Canary Capital’s recent filing for a spot Litecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
LTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView
At its local high, LTC was trading for as much as $72, its best since July 2024.
Crypto market cheers first Litecoin ETF filing
According to its S-1 filings dated Oct. 15, asset manager Canary Capital has submitted registration documents for spot Litecoin ETFs with US regulators.
Canary’s proposed ETF seeks to hold spot Litecoin, aiming to closely mirror the CoinDesk Litecoin Price Index (LTX) performance. If approved, this ETF could offer investors more direct exposure to LTC, further expanding the options for institutional involvement in crypto.
The news has prompted crypto analysts to make aggressive bullish calls for Litecoin, especially as the cryptocurrency remains an underperformer.
It is down by over 80% from its record high of around $413.65 in May 2021, compared to the broader crypto market’s decline of approximately 15%.
Total crypto market capitalization vs. LTC/USD weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView
For instance, independent analyst 28 Crypto sees the ETF as a potential catalyst for a new bull cycle, coupling this with a technical scenario on the LTC/USD monthly chart.
According to the chart, Litecoin trades within an ascending parallel channel that dates back several years, a bullish indicator signaling a potential breakout.
LTC/USD monthly price chart. Source: 28 Crypto
The price has bounced from key support levels and appears to be preparing for a surge toward the $200-$300 range, with 28 Crypto highlighting a potential Fibonacci extension target of over $2,000 in the long term.
Analyst Investing Haven further argues that Litecoin’s current trading range serves as a “buy the dip” opportunity, noting that the altcoin’s price will likely surge toward its June resistance target of around $88.
“Litecoin is trading in its expected range, and a key ‘buy the dip’ zone between $57.85 and $61.15 could happen soon,” he wrote, adding:
“This might be a solid long-term entry.”
The uplifting bullish outlook following Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF filing is the top reason behind LTC’s gains today.
Litecoin OI climbs to 3-month high
Open interest in the Litecoin futures market has climbed to its highest level in three months following Canary Capital’s ETF filing update.
As of Oct. 16, the number of unsettled futures contracts was around $258.94 million, up from $232 million a day ago. Meanwhile, the market’s funding rates were positive at 0.262% per week.
Litecoin OI and funding rates. Source: CoinGlass
This rise in open interest suggests that traders are positioning themselves in anticipation of further price increases, often seen as a bullish signal.
Furthermore, the market’s positive funding rates indicate that traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions, reinforcing the upward momentum.
Litecoin falls short of a decisive breakout
Litecoin’s gains today are part of a rebound that started after testing the lower trendline of its prevailing symmetrical triangle as support. As of Oct. 16, LTC/USD is still trapped inside the triangle range, suggesting immediate downside risks ahead.
Notably, LTC has failed to close above a resistance confluence decisively comprising the triangle’s upper trendline, the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave), and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line.
LTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Additionally, the daily relative strength index (RSI) currently sits around 62, just shy of the overbought threshold of 70.
From a technical standpoint, this suggests that LTC price may face increased downside risks, as further upward momentum could be limited if buying pressure diminishes.
Related: 3 key metrics point to ‘up only season’ in altcoins — Analysts
That said, LTC’s downside target for October appears to be around $84, a level coinciding with the triangle’s lower trendline and the 0.236 Fib line.
Nonetheless, a clear breakout above the resistance confluence may invalidate the bearish setup, setting LTC’s price toward the 0.5 Fib line target of around $80 in October.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
