Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant rally by the end of 2024, according to insights from the latest 10x Research report.
The report highlights the volatile year so far but discusses a paradigm shift in light of the combination of forces driving the cryptocurrency market and seasonal patterns.
Speaking with Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, explained that there is a “key focus” on the FTX payout, as the “proposed $5-8 billion inflow” could spark bullish sentiment.
“There’s a possibility of a melt-up in risk assets, as the Fed seems to have raised the level of the S&P 500 at which they would intervene to protect investors, signaling the potential for further rate cuts — often referred to as the ‘Fed put.’ As a result, many investors are likely to reposition their portfolios in anticipation of 2025.“
Seasonal patterns
Bitcoin (BTC) has historically shown strong performance from October to March, a trend highlighted in the 10x Research report.
The report speculates that this trend could repeat this year, particularly considering the previous 2014, 2017, and 2021 market cycles.
“While our contrarian bearish outlook since March/April was based on various factors, Bitcoin’s 2024 performance has once again followed its seasonal pattern — just as it did in 2023.“
Bitcoin catalysts and risks
The report considers multiple external factors that could act as catalysts for Bitcoin’s end-of-year (EOY) performance. Liquidity is expected to support the bullish momentum.
Macroeconomic conditions such as the Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation concerns, and US election-related dynamics are potential catalysts for BTC’s price.
Despite the alignment of potential bullish catalysts for BTC, the report cautions investors to be vigilant, highlighting the asset’s history of drawdowns of up to 70% in previous cycles.
“The two key levels to watch for Bitcoin are the previous cycle high of $68,330 and the 21-week moving average [...] Managing trades around these levels is essential for effective risk management [...] This may involve selling during volatile periods, even at less-than-ideal levels.”
Bitcoin rally amid gold pump
The off-risk asset gold has gained over 5% since Sept. 9, recording a new all-time-high (ATH) driven by geopolitical tensions and interest rate cuts.
Crypto analysts have since been sharing predictions about the impact of BTC’s price on the result of this substantial rise in the price of gold.
The Federal Reserve’s 0.5% interest rate cut on Sept. 18 catalyzed the risk-off commodity, gaining a new record high price of $2,629 per ounce as of Sept. 23.
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