$BTC

In the new year, a new beginning. Wishing everyone a happy new year and prosperity.

Let's not place orders today; the market won't have significant changes.

$BTC

BTC双顶，交易缩量，摇摇欲坠，拉拉回光返照。

大趋势就是回调，拉也就是插针，只要大插针直接入，这点交易量，散户没筹码，大户卖不出，现阶段就是很尴尬，只能横盘吸引大多数人干合约，上下插针获取流动性，政策上没有真金白银到头很有可能一场空，有新高，但应该高不了多少了。

技术上就是简单双顶跟回调a浪形态，低多为主，空得高空， 106-108，设置几百点止损即可，继续等吧。

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$BTC

Liquidity is basically exhausted, and there wasn't much trading volume in the US stock market last night. Whether it goes up or down, let's see who has a bit more patience. Just wait.

$BTC

交易量下降，流动性降低，消息面的利好利空暂时出尽。

从大方向而言，回调是正常趋势，价格共识没有形成，昨天很多说站稳105关口、102关口，都不太现实，上涨需要源源不断的资金流入，跟美股类似，源源不断的印钱就会有不断的新高，现阶段大部分机构及财团都是大币圈吸取资金到场外，而非从场外投入大量资金到场外，流动性是散户带来的，机构操纵的。

从走势而言没啥变化，具体看上一篇文章，现在就是关注102与10关口就行，这轮周期109肯定不是顶点，会有更高，但不应该现在。

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$BTC

BTC will see a new round of price increase, but not now.

At this stage, it is a broad range pinning to obtain liquidity, and then with less capital, it can control larger fluctuations. The current price is not suitable for entering the market. One could say that entering above 100,000 is not very appropriate, as it is all on-site funds, and there have been no significant increases in issuance for over a month. At this stage, raising prices is also low liquidity raising, similar to before around 108,000. Relatively speaking, it is more appropriate to wait for a drop before entering.

As for Bitcoin reserves, there were some news yesterday, but one can only say not to take it too seriously. Everyone is here to make money. Objectively speaking, the main idea is to manage the existing cryptocurrency reserves in the U.S. rather than spending money to buy Bitcoin. Slogans and news can bring significant price increases, but if you want to make money without spending a dime, you can only say that the first time can pull tens of thousands, the second time pulls 10,000, the third time pulls a few thousand, and later no one wants to pull. There are no expectations; good news is good news, and increasing the issuance of USDT is the biggest good news.

From the trend perspective, the daily level is the fifth wave, and we can see above 11.9. From the 4-hour perspective, it still needs to reach 100,000 next time, of course, it can also continue to oscillate within the range.

Overall, I still do not have a good view on the current price, but next month is acceptable. At this stage, it is just a hard pull and a hard smash. In the past, pulling 5,000 points could explode several hundred million, now pulling 5,000 points could explode several tens of millions. Where has the money gone? Let's wait for the direction to come out.

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$BTC

Short squeeze market, jumping up and down, nothing to see here.

Don't believe in nonsense like 'the more it rebounds, the bigger the drop' - I can say it's a big drop after a rebound of 6000 when the price is still 100,000, and the position is gone, basically ignore such statements.

Set stop losses, open positions when needed, if not doing contracts then just trade spot, it doesn't matter how the needle is inserted.

$BTC

BTC突破新高后浪形态被破坏，仍在10上方震荡，往下空间相对有限，还差最后一轮主升。

BTC未破新高前的走势仍是105-108直接空性价比极高，可以看85，但资金有限情况并且没有什么大利好情况下突发直接拉但109附近，只能说比较坑。

现阶段技术面影响就是小于消息面，无论多空基本都不会有什么大的收益，上下都是上万点的波动，不是合约可以扛得住的，相对做短线会比长线收获更大一点。

回归盘面，我们可以看到简单的双顶的形态，从4h走势而言差一轮c就是回调结束，按照1.0位置就是98附近按照1.618就是92了无论多少，大跌就加仓，10与102都可以作为其短期关口，如果持续震荡那么98位置就得不断提高了。

日线走势从之前差一轮c到现在基本形态形成了5浪形态，按照0.618就是11.9的关口，但要注意11万关口很容易形成本轮周期比较大的一个阻力，很有可能就不上直接转下了，不过针对本年度机构的尿性可能性不大。

从做单角度而言，你低多肯定性价比比较高，除非高空位置在105附近，盘面变化很快，最近就是情绪与消息影响导致很多技术指标效果不太好，但是保持其目标位开基本不会损失太多甚至有点小赚，主要该拿住拿住，不要拿不住，能抗5000点那么止损你就得有1000点止损预期，止盈就得有6000的预期。千万不要能亏5000点但是盈利1000点就想着平仓，提高止盈止损位置，其他就随缘。
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$PEPE

Pepe ainda tem a possibilidade de um recuo após um novo impulso, com a predominância de oscilações.

O movimento de 4h ainda está em um estado de flutuação dentro de uma faixa, com oscilações na média móvel, sem ter rompido a média móvel. O movimento diário pertence à parte final de um ajuste, e é difícil dizer se esse ajuste continuará descendo ou se está no fundo, ou se está oscilando para trocar tempo por espaço.

Na direção geral, ainda haverá uma rodada de recuo, que pode ser na forma de uma queda ou na forma de uma flutuação dentro de uma faixa. A região em torno de 14,15 pode ser considerada um ponto de suporte de curto prazo, e a atitude geral de manter posições compradas em níveis baixos não tem problema.

Seu movimento específico não é padrão, a recuperação é forte, mas também muito breve, adequada para um rápido recuo seguido de uma rápida recuperação, ou ao atingir o nível alvo em torno de 14,15, pode-se simplesmente esperar que o preço suba para 18, 20, 22. Desde que haja um recuo, haverá uma alta, a questão é apenas a magnitude.

O gráfico mostrado é o ajuste diário, e o nível alvo esperado pode mudar com o tempo, a tendência de comprar a preços baixos permanece, observe o recuo, mas não faça o recuo, faça compras a preços baixos.
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$ETH

ETH的整体趋势还是区间震荡，没有有效的拉升，等等吧。

ETH属于让一直加仓，因为到现在都没有特别大的拉升，大户及机构都在不断加仓，也没有太大有效资金，只能说会拉，但什么时候拉难说，之前回调插针到了2900的位置，往下也就2700附近，就没啥太大空间了，所以相对而言逢低加仓没有问题，之前直播也说过，逢低加仓不会亏待你，事实不还是如此吗？

图中现阶段就是中轨位置小范围内震荡，3400能支撑住的话可以继续往上看看3500、3550，不能撑住的话不就还是3000附近继续看，现阶段就是你说多也有理，说空也不错，都需要开仓来判断方向，只能说没有破3566附近的上边界往下走概率更大一些。
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$BTC

BTC突破10万后就属于区间宽幅震荡了，拉高下轨，拉低上轨。

4h的走势摸到了上轨的位置，简单的上升楔形，能不能突破就看是否站稳了，这轮消息面是＞技术面。日线走势仍处于调整状态，上文也提过，转108开始的a或者100800往上的b转c，现在的关口就来到105附近了，现阶段也并未看到新铸造资金，属于场内资金拉盘，相对拉涨的幅度与时间我持保守态度。

图1是4h的图，图2是日线的a或者b转c，主要就是要补充一下做单，周期单你需要承受的波动基本属于上万点的波动，那么越接近目标位，你承担风险越低，例如之前说的102与89，8.9附近开空你需要承担的范围就是1.3W点，102附近开空你承担范围就是1000点。

做日内单的波动基本就属于整数关口，前高都可以作为其止损位，日内单就是低多高空，没啥大问题，例如89反弹到98、99，那么你就可以空止损位放在10万多一点。

昨天摸了一下100800多，前面的b浪是102，那么你的空就需要在100800-102000，止损就是102000多一点。

或者你10万开多，那么你的止损就需要放在10万下一点，也就是995附近，盈利位置就在102000，然后1000位基准往上看。

日内看波动、上中下轨、阻力、前高，大趋势可看可不看，这才是做单，而不是9.3开了空，然后抗到10万多，没必要，适当止损判断方向是正常的，对于做单方向错误慢慢降低其止损位置，而不是没有目的的扛单。有的朋友做单就是头铁式做单，听风就是雨，都不是永赚大师，同一个方案，有人赚有人亏，也有人不亏不赚，亏的主要原因不还是头铁。亏钱了就是博主就是骗子我要退群，赚钱了就是博主真准，文章看懂了？设置止损了？是目标位附近开的单子？一个都没做到，肯定就是亏＞赚。
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$ETH

ETH大方向属于回调结束，接着往下的话空间不算很大。

从整体走势而言，4h的完整波浪已经走完了，回踩了1.618的位置，也就是之前说的2928。日线的回调已能不能往下还是两说，就算继续往下也就几百点的样子。

无论4h与日线，基本都在中轨下方，问题不大，日线的位置是回调了0.816的位置，继续往下空间有限，2900抄底的慢慢等拉涨就行。

图1是4h的的形态，快接近中轨位置，最大回踩了1.618位置，图2是日线形态，回踩了0.816，1.0的位置空间不大，没必要看。

追涨杀跌是大忌，把握趋势是关键，第一目标点位属于大概率会到，第二目标位概率就低一点，想要大收获就要冒大风险，技术分析仅仅是让估计走势概率更大一点，关键还是能准确把握入场的位置。
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$BTC

BTC大方向仍在调整，走法上略有不同。

从4小时走势而言其八浪形态结束，当前处于上轨附近，其他没啥分析必要。从日线走势而言，之前走的处于c浪形态，但由于昨晚硬拉，其c浪形态破坏，开始预期拉是98、99附近开始回调，但插针也算摸到10万的顶部。

现阶段就是我们调整三浪并未走完，但开始的abc中的c已经转成a浪（108000开始的a）或者b转c(100800为b或者更高一点)，在外面就没带电脑，用手机凑合一下，主要看能否站稳10万关头，9.9万空没啥问题，主要是止损设置好。

图1的4小时是摸了一下上轨，图2的日线仍在上轨与中轨附近，整体做单还是需要时刻把握它的一个走势，大走势不变，但中间波动变化很大，开始目标位108预计8.5，那么中间无论反弹是107还是但8.4都是符合其形态，所以尽量在目标位附近开。

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