Translation: White Paper Blockchain
In 2025, the future of Bitcoin is full of expectations, as market giants turn their attention to Trump's return, hoping that this event can become an important catalyst for growth in the crypto market throughout the year.
1. Bitcoin Breaks Historical High After Trump Wins the Presidential Election on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin first breaks the $100,000 milestone. As Trump is officially sworn in on January 20, 2025, the heat of the Bitcoin market is pushed to higher expectations.
Boosted by Trump's commitment to regulatory easing and a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, market confidence grows exponentially. According to FX Street, the cryptocurrency adoption rate among 18 to 25-year-olds surged by 683% after the presidential election, making Bitcoin's price ceiling a hot topic of discussion.
2. The Future of Bitcoin: How Will Trump's Second Term Affect the Market? Can Trump's policies propel Bitcoin to unprecedented new highs? Will the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve become a watershed moment in Bitcoin's history? Let's delve into the potential impacts. 1) Establishing a Bitcoin Reserve In last year's campaign, Trump promised to incorporate all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government as well as those purchased in the future into a 'National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.' He compared this plan to the U.S. oil reserve and emphasized the need for swift action to accumulate large reserves before competing countries like China.
Trump's plan is not globally unprecedented; as early as 2021, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset, currently holding a total of 6,150 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $600 million at current prices.
Although the specific details of Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan remain unclear, and its actual implementation is uncertain, there are signs that this plan may reference the 'BITCOIN Act' proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide).
According to Maxim Manturov, Head of Investment Research at Freedom24, 'According to the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. must accumulate 1 million Bitcoins over the next 20 years, which is about 5% of the total supply. The limited supply of Bitcoin is expected to drive up its price, and the U.S. accumulating Bitcoin now may help offset growing debt issues in the future.'
Since the total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million, this means that 5% of the supply equals 1.05 million Bitcoins, which, at current valuations, is worth over $100 billion. 2) Supply and Demand Imbalance Will Drive Prices Up With huge demand for Bitcoin ETFs, this supply-demand imbalance may further push prices up. Manturov points out that under such circumstances, market predictions for Bitcoin prices range from $125,000 in 2025 to $2.9 million in 2050.
It remains uncertain whether Trump's policies can come to fruition, but if this plan is implemented, the U.S. could not only become a leader in Bitcoin reserves but also have a profound impact on the future of the crypto market. A historic moment for Bitcoin may be on the horizon.
3. How High Can Bitcoin Go? The timing of Trump's return to the presidency is particularly crucial, as Bitcoin has just completed its fourth 'halving event' in 2024. This is a pre-set mechanism that occurs approximately every four years, with each halving reducing the Bitcoin rewards miners receive through computational power by half. 1) Halving Events and Market Uptrends Bitcoin halving events automatically increase the scarcity of newly generated Bitcoins, and historically, this mechanism typically triggers market rebounds and drives Bitcoin prices to new historical highs.
Therefore, expectations for Bitcoin's performance in the first half of 2025 are already very high, and the optimism brought by Trump may further promote Bitcoin adoption. 2) Trump's Price Expectations According to sources, Trump privately hopes that Bitcoin can reach $150,000 in the early stages of his presidency and views it as an alternative to the stock market.
Trump's son, Eric Trump, is even more aggressive; he stated at the Bitcoin Conference MENA in December that Bitcoin's future price could reach $1 million.
Although the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and the volatility of global markets and geopolitics make such predictions uncertain, considering investor enthusiasm and the limited supply of Bitcoin, the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the $1 million target in the future is not unimaginable.
However, in 2025, Bitcoin's price may be closer to Trump's predicted $150,000. But if market sentiment continues to grow, $150,000 may seem overly conservative.
4. Potential Issues Still Exist A key challenge facing the Trump administration is that the uncertainty surrounding the future development prospects of Bitcoin remains pervasive.
John Prasad, Senior Investment Expert at Mirabaud Group, points out that the future of Bitcoin is both full of potential and uncertainty. He cites inflationary pressures, liquidity issues, global regulatory prospects, and the controversy over its role as a store of value as reasons why Bitcoin's growth is not yet fully guaranteed.
(National) Magazine Washington Bureau Chief Chris Lyman believes that the rising acceptance of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. could lead to an increase in scams and 'pump and dump' schemes, which are precisely the targets that former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has been working to combat.
Although Gensler's departure has been welcomed by the crypto community, if the regulatory framework remains loose, the credibility of the entire crypto market may be affected.
5. Trump's Transformative Impact There is no doubt that Trump's new administration will become one of the most significant forces affecting the cryptocurrency ecosystem since Bitcoin's inception in 2009.
Trump's commitment to establishing a Bitcoin reserve and implementing crypto-friendly policies is driving market expectations that 2025 will become a landmark year for the crypto market. Many speculative investors have already taken for granted that a strong rise in Bitcoin prices is almost a done deal.
However, the speculative nature of the industry leaves uncertainty pervasive, and in an open regulatory environment, bad actors may further damage the credibility of cryptocurrencies.
Trump will undoubtedly play an important role in the future of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, but how his second term will impact this market remains full of unknowns.