Bitcoin's weekly chart looks bullish, but three major black swan events are approaching. Will we face one last drop this week? If you're interested in these topics, let's dive into today's program! Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Bullish but Lacking Strength Currently, Bitcoin's weekly performance is relatively bullish as its closing price is above last week's opening price, indicating it's not in a bearish state. However, the closing price is in the lower half, showing that the bullish rebound strength is not strong.

图片Looking ahead, the daily chart has formed a doji star for three consecutive days, indicating a strong balance of bullish and bearish forces. Although there are weekend factors, the trading volume is still very low, which gives a somewhat strange clue.图片

Support and Resistance: Current Range Analysis Currently, Bitcoin has formed strong support in a certain support zone, which seems to never break. However, there is also a not-so-strong resistance zone; although not too many positions have accumulated above, this line is tough to break, indicating that the price finds it hard to surpass the upper resistance. This range has been oscillating at the bottom for a long time but still lacks a clear direction.

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MicroStrategy Buying Bitcoin: There May Be Other Operations MicroStrategy bought Bitcoin again on January 6, suggesting they might be taking other internal measures. Originally, MicroStrategy planned to stop increasing capital expansion in January, but they are still purchasing Bitcoin at this time, which is undoubtedly a positive signal. Nevertheless, the liquidity in exchanges has not fluctuated significantly, and the recent inflow of funds, although not large, indicates a decrease in recent bottom-fishing funds.

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Thin Trading Volume: The Market May Be Brewing a Big Trend Currently, the market's trading volume is sparse, especially over the weekend, primarily impacted by volume. Since Friday, the market has entered a very sparse narrow range, seemingly brewing a significant trend. We had expected the rebound range for Bitcoin to be between $96,000 and $98,000. Although the peak has reached $96,000, it has yet to break through. News: Trump, CPI, and Japan's Interest Rate Hike Now let's look at some news that may affect the market. First, there is one week left until Trump's term begins, and it is uncertain whether this will have a significant impact on the market. We believe the most critical factor is the CPI data to be released this Wednesday, with a previous value of 27 and an expectation of 2.8. If the CPI is below expectations, the market will welcome good news; however, if the CPI exceeds expectations, it may negatively affect the market, especially impacting rate cut expectations.

图片Additionally, there is a potentially overlooked black swan event: Japan may hike interest rates. If Japan raises interest rates, it will negatively impact the financial markets. The larger risk lies in the U.S. debt ceiling issue. On January 1, the U.S. debt ceiling will expire, with a staggering $3 trillion in U.S. bonds this year. If the debt ceiling issue resurfaces, it could cause significant market disturbances.图片

Black Swan Events: U.S. Debt Ceiling and Japan's Interest Rate Hike If the debt ceiling issue is not resolved, it may affect the market's dollar liquidity, while the issuance of additional government bonds could create a siphoning effect on risk markets. Therefore, we need to be particularly cautious about the proximity of these three black swan events. If Bitcoin rises above $96,000 to $98,000 and other spot markets follow suit, it is advisable to reduce positions to below 50% to prevent a sharp drop. Market Strategy: 50% Position and Contract Operations If Bitcoin's price rises above $96,000 to $98,000 and other spots follow, consider reducing your position to below 50%, keeping 50% in cash to respond to potential sharp declines. We expect the drop zone to be between $88,000 and $90,000, so you need enough funds to buy in. As a contract trader, you should buy long positions when prices approach the bottom. If the price reaches $96,000-$98,000, you should start direct-selling. If the expected price is not reached, you should start direct-selling at $95,800 to avoid leverage risks. This Week's Risks and Benefits: Stay Cautious and Watch CPI Data The possibility of a sharp drop is uncertain, but it's likely that this week will bring a decision in the bullish or bearish direction. If the three major black swan events do not occur, especially if CPI data is significantly lower than expected, this will be a huge benefit for rate cuts. Therefore, maintaining a 50% position is a strategy to respond to uncertain market conditions. Summary: Stay Alert and Be Flexible This is my advice for everyone. This week, pay special attention to CPI data, the debt ceiling, and Japan's interest rate hike as the three major black swan events. With the return of liquidity on Monday, the market situation will gradually clarify.