Especuladores de Bitcoin vendem em pânico, dados da rede revelam ‘bom momento para acumular’
Com o mercado de moeda digital passando por rápidas mudanças, o Bitcoin voltou a ser o foco da atenção dos investidores. Recentemente, à medida que o preço do Bitcoin caiu de seus máximos, especialmente depois de atingir o preço chave de US$ 92.000, o mercado deu início a uma onda de vendas em pânico. No entanto, para este fenômeno de mercado aparentemente pessimista, a plataforma de análise de dados on-chain CryptoQuant deu uma interpretação completamente diferente – este pode ser um “bom momento para acumular”.
Em sua última postagem no blog Quicktake, a CryptoQuant fornece uma análise aprofundada da dinâmica atual do mercado Bitcoin e aponta uma série de indicadores-chave aos quais os investidores devem prestar atenção. Entre elas, a taxa de lucro da produção e da despesa (SOPR) tornou-se uma ferramenta importante para medir o sentimento do mercado e a especulação. Ao monitorar o status de lucros ou perdas de resultados de transações não gastos (UTXOs), o SOPR revela os lucros e perdas reais dos investidores nas transações, fornecendo aos analistas uma janela detalhada sobre as mudanças no sentimento do mercado.
Data shows that the current SOPR value for short-term holders (STH, meaning investors holding Bitcoin for no more than 155 days) has fallen below the breakeven point of 1, indicating that these investors are selling Bitcoin at a loss. This phenomenon has sparked widespread discussion on YouTube and news media, with a barrage of negative news leading to a clear shift in market sentiment towards pessimism. CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D points out that the short-term SOPR value is 0.987, indicating that investors holding for less than 6 months are experiencing losses and choosing to sell as a result.
However, despite the seemingly pessimistic market sentiment, on-chain data reveals a glimmer of hope. Historical data shows that when short-term investors generally face losses, Bitcoin prices tend to be close to or have reached a short-term bottom. In other words, the capitulation behavior of speculative investors often coincides with a rebound in Bitcoin prices. This pattern was confirmed in August 2024, when the STH-SOPR fell to its lowest level in over three years, while Bitcoin prices subsequently formed a solid bottom around $55,000.
Therefore, CryptoQuant believes that the current panic selling in the market may be a good opportunity for investors to buy on dips. MAC_D further points out that as short-term investors experience more pain, this often leads to better accumulation opportunities. Savvy investors may take this opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin that is undervalued due to panic selling by short-term investors.
In addition to SOPR, other sentiment indicators also show signs of increasing market tension. For example, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index returned to the 'neutral' zone this week, marking the lowest level since October. Although this index is still significantly higher than its counterparts in traditional markets, its 'fear' return rate is only 32/100, indicating that the market has not completely fallen into a state of panic. However, changes in this index are still worth close attention from investors, as they may signal further shifts in market sentiment.
Meanwhile, large investors have once again increased their investments in Bitcoin after the holiday off-season. Data from CryptoQuant shows that in the 30 days leading up to January 8, Bitcoin whales added 34,000 BTC. This data indicates that despite significant fluctuations in market sentiment, large investors remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term value. They may be taking advantage of the current market turmoil to accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices.
In summary, the current panic selling in the Bitcoin market may be a good opportunity for investors to buy on dips. On-chain data provides strong evidence that when short-term investors generally face losses, Bitcoin prices tend to be close to or have reached a short-term bottom. Therefore, savvy investors may take advantage of this opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin that is undervalued due to panic selling. Of course, investing always carries risks, and investors need to fully consider their risk tolerance and investment goals when making decisions. Nevertheless, the current market dynamics undoubtedly provide an investment opportunity worth noting for those seeking long-term gains.
