Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show that the market is generally bearish.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On January 7, Zhao Changpeng tweeted: 'A Bitcoin price of $100,000 is too boring.' If $100,000 is a bit boring, then what about Bitcoin at $91,200? Perhaps all that’s left is uncertainty and unrest. The market once thought the upcoming trend would continue to rise, but what followed was a completely opposite outcome: Bitcoin has continuously dropped since January 7, eventually dipping to around $91,200.
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has dropped to 50 today, down from 69 yesterday (last week's average was 74), with market sentiment plunging to levels seen in October last year. The crypto market has not had the dream start to the year that investors expected; instead, it has been volatile, with prices resembling a roller coaster since last December, leaving many market participants, especially altcoin holders, exhausted from the micro-up and down movements.
Data doesn’t lie. According to Coinglass data, with Bitcoin continuously dipping recently, the funding rates of current mainstream CEX and DEX show that the market is generally bearish. With market sentiment and coin prices both languishing, how do the experts view the future market trends?
Real Vision co-founder: The market is entering the 'banana singularity' zone, and after consolidation, an altcoin season will emerge.
Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated that the cryptocurrency market is entering the 'banana singularity' zone, or a period when 'everything is rising.' ('Banana zone' is a term created by Raoul Pal to describe periods of significant price increases.)
Raoul Pal stated that the market is still in the banana zone, with the first phase of this bull market being the breakout in November last year. The next phase will be a consolidation period similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, which will not last long. The next phase of the 'banana zone' is the 'banana singularity,' a season for altcoins where 'everything will rise, followed by a larger consolidation.'
CryptoQuant CEO: The altcoin market is in a zero-sum PvP game, and only a few projects can survive.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on his social media that 'The altcoin market is currently in a zero-sum PvP (player vs player) game. Although Bitcoin's market cap has doubled, the total market cap of altcoins is still below previous historical highs, merely rotating within the market without new capital inflows. Only a few altcoins with strong use cases and narratives will survive.'
Trader Eugene: BTC, ETH, and SOL are facing critical support levels failing, and the market is beginning to show panic.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media that 'This is when most people start to panic, for the following reasons:'
· BTC, ETH, and SOL are retesting the range low from December 5, with the market starting to accept the fact that these support levels may not hold.
· The next support level for BTC is at $85,000, which is still quite far away.
· People’s psychological dependence on the 'January bull market' is beginning to weaken, with most realizing that the assets they haven't sold have gone through a complete cycle of ups and downs, beginning to incur losses, and further discovering that they no longer like the coins they hold as much when the market drops significantly.
Glassnode: If Bitcoin falls below $88,000, it may lead to further declines.
Glassnode stated: 'The cost basis for short-term holders ($88,000) remains a key level for assessing Bitcoin price momentum. Using the URPD indicator, it can be seen that trading volume below the cost basis for short-term holders is low, indicating that a break below this level could lead to further downward trends.'
TraderS: Bitcoin will consolidate and fluctuate in the short term; this Friday's non-farm payroll data should be closely monitored.
Twitter KOL trader TraderS tweeted that for the short-term market, $92,750 might be the short-term low (or second-low). Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $92,000 and $102,000, and if the limits are widened a bit, it would be around $88,000 to $108,000. Before Trump’s inauguration on January 20, there may still be time both in terms of time cycle and sentiment to return above $100,000, or even touch the previous high. If that happens, most positions will be cleared to observe the actual performance after Trump’s inauguration. If there are no opportunities before January 20, we may have to wait until the spring festival in mid-March according to metaphysical customs. The major non-farm data on Friday night may be the most important reference data to establish the upper and lower market tone, which needs to be closely monitored.
Crypto KOL Ansem: The market will enter a period of sideways consolidation, but there are still opportunities on-chain.
Crypto KOL Ansem pointed out that the current fundamental view is that from August to December is altcoin season, during which October to December experienced the first round of AI token mini-bubbles. He expects the market to enter a prolonged period of sideways consolidation until investors generally believe the bull market is over. During this time, some on-chain projects will perform well, while many new projects will be worth participating in.
Trader Kruge: The market is overly pessimistic, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle has not ended, and new historical highs are still anticipated.
Renowned trader Kruge expressed in a lengthy tweet about his market outlook that people are currently too bearish. I think this is a matter of time frame. Most crypto natives are exhausted, and many have even been traumatized. Normally, this sentiment could actually form a top. But this time, traditional finance (Tradfi) is buying Bitcoin (not just Saylor alone). They are indifferent to the trauma of crypto natives.
So ask yourself: Has the top of the stock market been reached? That is the key. ETFs should ensure that the correlation continues to exist. And to answer this question, you also have to ask yourself another question: Has the Fed's rate-cutting cycle ended? I don't think so. We just heard the Fed announce a temporary pause in rate hikes, which has basically been digested by the market. It’s temporary, not permanent. Look at what the Fed officials are saying; they still advocate for further rate cuts. And the market's expectation for a rate cut in 2025 is almost priced in for only one cut. Three months ago, that number was seven cuts.
Kruge also stated: The market narrative will soon shift again, no longer focusing on the hawkish Federal Reserve and long-term interest rate sell-offs. Trump is also about to make an appearance. Meanwhile, given the pessimistic economic data and chart performance we just received, I wouldn't be surprised if BTC prices enter the $80,000 range. However, in my view, this is just temporary noise that requires short-term risk management. I do believe traders will be more aggressive in selling when BTC prices exceed $100,000, which will slow the upward momentum, especially before prices reach $105,000. I also think macro factors are becoming important again. I don’t expect there to be a 'simple pattern' in the future. The easy money days are over. But I still expect Bitcoin to hit new highs. We have a long year ahead.
