Tonight at 21:30

The U.S. unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for December will be announced

Here are the key interpretations:

1. Unemployment Rate (Expected 4.2%)

Higher than expected: Bearish + tight, due to a weak job market.

Lower than expected: Short-term bullish, but long-term may be bearish. A decrease in the unemployment rate may lower interest rate cut expectations.

2. Non-farm Data (Expected 160,000)

Higher than expected: Bearish, strong economic performance, hawkish expectations.

Lower than expected: Bullish, a slowdown in the job market, the Fed may ease policies.

Tonight's two data points have a significant impact

Need to pay attention to market sentiment and instant reactions

Today is an important day on the macro front

The unemployment rate and non-farm employment data will be announced

As mentioned earlier

Next week, CPI will be announced.

In the coming weeks

Our main focus is on the changes in the consensus for future interest rate cuts. For January, the market has a clear consensus that there will be no rate cut.

The focus will be on the later stages of this easing cycle

Since there is no FOMC meeting in February

Market participants will turn their attention to the March meeting

Currently, there is a 57% probability that there will be no rate cut in March

A pause in the easing cycle for 3 months will bring uncertainty to the financial markets, as seen from the recent strength of the SPX index and the dollar's price movements

In the coming weeks

The decrease in this probability and the increase in the probability of a 25 basis point cut will be bearish for the dollar (the dollar has also reached a key resistance level), and will help the stock market and the cryptocurrency market to rise again 📈

In the coming weeks

Trump's initiatives and appropriate data will help this.