Esta noite, às 21h30, os Estados Unidos divulgarão dados não agrícolas para dezembro de 2024. O mercado espera que o novo emprego não agrícola seja de 160.000, inferior ao valor anterior de 227.000, a taxa de desemprego deverá ser de 4,2%; que é igual à figura anterior. O valor anterior permaneceu inalterado. Combinada com a declaração do Fed de "desacelerar o ritmo dos cortes nas taxas de juros" na ata da reunião de dezembro, se os dados não agrícolas estiverem em linha com as expectativas ou se a diferença não for grande, a determinação do Fed em suspender os cortes nas taxas de juros não se espera que vacile.
Rastreamento de dados não agrícolas: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/data/ur
Os dados mostram que o mercado ajustou as suas expectativas relativamente ao número e à magnitude dos cortes nas taxas de juro por parte da Reserva Federal este ano. Até o momento, o mercado de taxas de juros aposta que a probabilidade de o Fed suspender os cortes nas taxas de juros este mês é de 93,1%; de cortar as taxas de juro em Maio e manter as taxas de juro inalteradas são bastante diferentes, quase iguais.
The new president is about to take office: Bull market or prelude to crisis?
As for the current situation, investors' pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy is gradually stabilizing, focusing on potential policy changes brought by the new U.S. president's inauguration. However, there are significant differences in the market's interpretation of Trump's imminent inauguration:
• The optimistic camp: Trump may promote a policy framework favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies, which is a long-term positive.
• The pessimistic camp: concerns that the Trump administration will expand the fiscal deficit, combined with its tariff policy may suppress global economic growth, forming a bearish sentiment from a macro perspective.
At the same time, concerns about rising U.S. inflation have already had a significant impact on market sentiment. As U.S. Treasury yields rise to annual highs, there is a noticeable outflow of funds from risk assets. AICoin (aicoin.com) data shows that this week, BTC prices have already retreated more than 11% from the peak, and mainstream coins like ETH and SOL have fallen more than 15%, with the total market capitalization evaporating by nearly $440 billion.
According to the editor's analysis, there is a negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and U.S. interest rates. As high-yield government bonds attract capital inflows, global liquidity is decreasing, and the liquidity support in the crypto market is weakening.
The Justice Department's $6.5 billion Bitcoin sale, is the market's panic excessive?
Currently, the market is filled with speculation that the bull market has ended, and Bitcoin is about to see the '80k' level, with risk aversion sentiment surging, and the Fear & Greed Index has turned from greed to neutral for the first time since October 15.
Main large order list: Overview of BTC, ETH and other large orders and transaction status: https://www.aicoin.com/vip
In addition, news yesterday stated that the U.S. Department of Justice was authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road. This news has intensified market concerns, especially during the transition between the Biden and Trump administrations. However, some analysts believe that the market's negative reaction to this news may be exaggerated, mainly based on the following points:
1. The selling pace may be orderly, aiming for the best price, rather than a one-time shock to the market.
2. The market has partially digested expectations, and price adjustments may have reflected this risk.
3. Since September 2024, the market has absorbed over 1 million Bitcoins sold by long-term holders, but the BTC price has still risen from $60,000 to over $100,000.
4. Historical data shows that large-scale government sales are usually reflected in market prices in advance, with limited impact. For example, when Germany sold 50,000 Bitcoins in 2023, the market quickly rebounded after hitting the bottom.
BTC technical indicators are tight: Head and shoulders pattern suppression.
Overall, as the first major macro data for 2025, tonight's non-farm report combined with the U.S. stock market opening is expected to cause significant volatility.
The main large order list shows that BTC bulls are starting to act, with a cumulative transaction of $576 million buy orders in the past 24 hours, net buying of $206 million, and an average buy price of $92,824.43, currently with a profit of 1.48%.
According to technical analysis, the current Coinbase BTC premium shows signs of turning positive, Bitcoin's price has re-established itself above the EMA52 moving average in a 45-minute custom period, and the downward channel in the 3-hour and 4-hour periods has been broken. At the same time, on the daily level, BTC price is approaching the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
Key technical level:
• Upper pressure: $95,450, $97,105
• Lower support: $92,000, $91,000
Summary
The market is currently facing multiple variables including non-farm data, policy expectations, and macro environment. In the short term, Bitcoin's price volatility will still be dominated by liquidity and market sentiment, while the long-term trend may depend on the policy direction of the new government. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of tonight's non-farm data on the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and remain alert to market changes after breaking key technical levels.
Recommended reading:
(Bitcoin performs 'pin needle scare'! Bulls and bears fight, who will laugh last?)
(Non-farm effect: When traditional economic barometers pry open the giant wheel of digital currency)
(Editor shares: Coinbase premium, small data, big use!)
Content is for sharing only, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice!
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