#比特币价格走势分析

Tonight at 21:30

The unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll for the US in December will be announced

Here are the key interpretations:

1. Unemployment Rate (Expected 4.2%)

Higher than expected: Bearish + dense, due to a weak job market.

Lower than expected: Short-term bullish, but long-term may be bearish. A decrease in the unemployment rate may lower expectations for interest rate cuts.

2. Non-farm Data (Expected 160,000)

Higher than expected: Bearish, strong economic performance, hawkish expectations.

Lower than expected: Bullish, slowing job market, Federal Reserve may ease policy.

Tonight's two data points are of significant impact

Need to pay attention to the market sentiment for immediate reactions

Today is an important day in terms of macroeconomic factors

The unemployment rate and non-farm employment data will be announced

As mentioned earlier, CPI will be released next week

In the coming weeks, our main focus is on the changes in consensus regarding future interest rate cuts.

For January, there is clear consensus in the market that no rate cuts are expected.

The focus will be on the later stage of this round of easing cycle

Since there is no FOMC meeting in February

Market participants will turn their attention to the March meeting

Currently, there is a 57% probability that there will be no rate cuts in March

A pause in the easing cycle for 3 months will bring uncertainty to the financial markets, which is evident from the recent strengthening of the SPX index and the dollar's price movements

In the coming weeks, a decrease in this probability and an increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut will be bearish for the dollar (the dollar has also reached a key resistance level) and will help the stock market and cryptocurrency sector to rise again📈

In the coming weeks

Trump's initiatives and appropriate data will help with this.