BTC has shown signs of a potential bottoming out after three trading days of decline. From a four-hour perspective, BTC is strongly testing the $96,000 level, and it has once again tested the lower $91,000 level.
I have emphasized multiple times that the $91,000 level for BTC is a watershed for bulls and bears. If this level is strongly breached on the four-hour chart, BTC will likely test the lower $85,000 level, which serves as a strong resistance line.
From a daily perspective, after BTC strongly broke through the $96,000 mark, I personally feel it will be difficult to strongly recover this level in the short term. The bullish momentum for BTC is weakening, with a significant reduction in market buying pressure, and bearish sentiment in the market is very severe.
We still need to pay attention to the $91,000 level as a watershed for bulls and bears, with a key focus on the $85,000 level as the strong resistance line.
At 9:30 PM tonight, there will be a U.S. non-farm payroll report. The day before yesterday, I noted in my risk control strategy that if today’s non-farm data is favorable, then BTC has a 40% chance of rising to $96,000 and subsequently testing the $100,000 level again.
However, I personally believe that even if the data is favorable, if BTC forcibly rises above the $96,000 level, there is an 80% probability it will come back down. Once a trend is established, it is very difficult to change in the short term, especially for a financial derivative like BTC with a market cap in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Beware of BTC's potential high pullback.