Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Autor | Marido (@vincent 31515173)
Na semana passada, o mercado de criptografia continuou a diminuir. Ontem, após a notícia de que o Departamento de Justiça dos EUA foi autorizado a vender US$ 6,5 bilhões em Bitcoins Silk Road apreendidos na darknet, o Bitcoin caiu de US$ 94.000 para menos de US$ 92.000, exacerbando o pânico do mercado. Muitos responsáveis da Reserva Federal também afirmaram que irão ajustar as políticas de taxas de juro, sugerindo que irão abrandar o ritmo dos cortes nas taxas de juro e implementar políticas de aperto em 2025. Ao mesmo tempo, sob a influência dos incêndios florestais de Los Angeles, alguns analistas apontaram que muitas pessoas ricas venderam ativos criptográficos para reconstruir as suas vidas pós-desastre. Vários desempenhos do mercado deixaram os investidores preocupados com o futuro dos preços das criptomoedas.
Today, Russia also began selling 1,032 bitcoins seized in the Infraud hacker organization case. Under the influence of multiple factors, the cryptocurrency market has again declined today.
Real-time market data from OKX shows that as of the time of publication, BTC fell below $92,000, currently reported at $93,760, with a 24-hour decline of 0.45%;
In addition to BTC, altcoins led by ETH are also facing significant declines. ETH fell below $3,200, currently reported at $3,258, with a 24-hour decline of 1.94%; SOL fell below $190, currently reported at $189.57, with a 24-hour decline of 1.4%;
On-chain market conditions are also not escaping this dilemma, with the previously booming AI Agent sector experiencing a collective correction. According to GMGN data, AI Agent tokens have continued to decline, including: ai16z with a 24-hour decline of 23.05%, currently valued at $1.68 billion; FARTCOIN with a 24-hour decline of 31.09%, currently valued at $919 million; ZEREBRO with a 24-hour decline of 41.92%, currently valued at $329 million.
Affected by the overall market uptrend, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has also rapidly fallen. CoinGecko data shows that the current total market value of cryptocurrencies has dropped to $3.4 trillion, down 3.4% in 24 hours. The trading enthusiasm of crypto users has also declined, with Alternative's panic and greed index reporting 50 today, shifting from greed to neutrality.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has faced liquidations of $375 million, including $260 million in long positions and $115 million in short positions. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC saw liquidations of $99.7435 million, and ETH liquidations amounted to $6.96681 million.
Below, Odaily Planet Daily analyzes the reasons for the recent market decline and future trends.
Multiple factors have led to the market decline.
The disaster recovery triggered by the Los Angeles wildfires has made cryptocurrency the fastest way to liquidate assets.
Recently, the ravaging of wildfires in Los Angeles has not only caused huge property losses for local residents but has also had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. According to data from Coinbase, after the outbreak of wildfires, the trading volume of Bitcoin from Los Angeles and surrounding areas surged, especially large transactions increased significantly, reflecting the eagerness of some affected families to liquidate crypto assets to meet the funding needs for post-disaster reconstruction.
According to local real estate market analysts, many wealthy families hold cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, often viewing them as an important part of their investment portfolio. However, under the ravages of the wildfires, they have to quickly liquidate these assets.
The head of a blockchain research institution in Los Angeles also pointed out that the recent price fluctuations in the market may be related to this large-scale asset sell-off. Particularly, in the context where individuals in the tech circle and high-net-worth individuals hold a higher proportion of crypto assets, the surge in short-term funding needs after the disaster has intensified market selling pressure. Furthermore, analysts warn that short-term selling behavior may negatively impact the stability of the cryptocurrency market.
The U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin related to the Silk Road.
The U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to handle 69,370 bitcoins related to the infamous Silk Road case, currently valued at approximately $6.5 billion. This news has triggered market fluctuations, with some investors concerned that the sale of these bitcoins may conflict with Trump's proposed plan to 'establish a Bitcoin reserve.' However, Trader T stated on the X platform, 'It may take months from being 'authorized' to 'actual sale,' and the court has established a liquidation plan for 30,000 BTC in 2023.'
At the same time, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated on the X platform that the 'diamond hands' in the market are ready to buy at this time. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also pointed out that approximately $379 billion entered the market last year, averaging about $10 billion daily, so the $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin sold by the U.S. government may be absorbed by the market within a week, and investors need not worry excessively. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele humorously stated that perhaps we all have the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount.
Coindesk analyst James Van Straten believes that the market's fears of a sell-off may be exaggerated. If these 69,370 bitcoins are indeed sold, they may be sold in an orderly manner to obtain the best price possible. Moreover, the market has already anticipated this situation, so it may have already digested this potential risk.
The pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will slow down in 2025.
Recently, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has changed, mainly reflected in the slowing pace of interest rate cuts. Boston Federal Reserve President Collins stated that considering the current strong employment data and persistent inflationary pressures, she believes that the magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be less than previously expected by the market. Specifically, Collins supports the Federal Reserve cutting rates twice in 2025, rather than the previously expected four times, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude towards the economic situation.
The Federal Reserve is facing the challenge of strong economic growth and inflation above 2% in the current economic environment. Kansas Fed President Schmidt pointed out that the current economic conditions are close to achieving the dual goals of price stability and full employment, and he believes that policy should remain neutral, with interest rates near long-term levels. Schmidt emphasized that further adjustments to monetary policy will only be made when data changes significantly.
In addition, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman mentioned in a recent speech that she supports last month's rate cut decision and believes it is the 'final step' in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment. She pointed out that inflation risks still exist, so future monetary policy decisions will remain cautious.
The challenge facing the Federal Reserve is that, although the current economic performance is strong, stabilizing the inflation rate at the target level of 2% remains difficult. Schmidt expects that the Federal Reserve may not achieve this goal until 2026.
From the market's expectations, according to data from CME's 'FedWatch,' investors generally believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rates in January 2025 is 93.1%. In the coming months, although the probability of rate cuts has increased, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy are relatively cautious.
Overall, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been adjusted, with the pace of interest rate cuts slowing, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious assessment of the current economic situation. Although future rate cuts may still continue, the market expects this process to be slower and more cautious.
In 10 days, the trend of the cryptocurrency market may become clearer.
In the next 10 days, the cryptocurrency market may welcome a critical turning point. Despite the recent low market sentiment and slightly weakened investor confidence, multiple signs indicate that the crypto market is likely to see a warming trend in 2025. According to Reuters, industry insiders revealed that the cryptocurrency industry is actively lobbying the U.S. government, requesting the Trump administration to issue an executive order within 100 days of taking office to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. This initiative aims to ensure that the crypto industry can access banking services and plans to set up a dedicated cryptocurrency advisory committee. Insiders expect this order to be issued as early as January 20, 2025. This action may provide new policy support for the crypto industry and become a catalyst for market recovery.
On the other hand, the fundamentals of the crypto market remain strong. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that despite the overall market downturn, the net outflow trend from centralized exchanges (CEX) continues. The data indicates that more and more investors are choosing to hold their assets long-term rather than panic sell due to short-term price fluctuations. This phenomenon suggests that there is still strong confidence in the market, and investors remain optimistic about the future growth potential of crypto assets. These behaviors reflect investors' positive attitudes towards the long-term development of cryptocurrencies, hoping for a recovery in the market after short-term adjustments.
In addition, the regulatory environment for altcoins is expected to improve in 2025. Andrew Baehr, the managing director of CoinDesk, pointed out that altcoins will benefit from changes in the cryptocurrency regulatory environment in 2025, especially as the SEC may ease regulatory pressure on altcoins, providing a more relaxed policy environment for the launch of more crypto projects. The improvement in regulation will help attract more projects to the market and may further promote the healthy development of the market.
Finally, the trend of integration between AI and cryptocurrencies will become increasingly evident. With the participation of Web 2.0 giants, the underlying technology of AI in the crypto field will be further strengthened. Members from leading industry firms such as Coinbase, Google, and a16z have jointly launched the 'Aiccelerate' project, a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) aimed at accelerating the deep integration of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence technology. AI technology is expected to play an increasingly important role in the development of blockchain projects, trade execution, risk management, and more, bringing more innovation and transformation to the crypto industry.
In summary, although the current market environment is quite difficult, with the gradual implementation of policy support, the recovery of investor confidence, and the promotion of AI technology, the cryptocurrency market in 2025 is expected to gradually recover and may welcome a new peak of development.
