O cofundador da MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, tem demonstrado sua firme crença em ativos criptográficos por meio de uma estratégia massiva de aquisição de Bitcoin nos últimos anos. No entanto, a controvérsia em torno desta estratégia nunca cessou. Os defensores veem isso como um movimento genial e com visão de futuro, enquanto os críticos alertam que um modelo de negócios que depende do Bitcoin corre o risco de se transformar em uma aposta de alto risco.

Estratégia de aquisição de Bitcoin de Thaler

Desde 2020, Thaler liderou a MicroStrategy na aquisição de Bitcoin em grande escala e se tornou a maior holding de Bitcoin do mundo, com participações atingindo 447.470 Bitcoins. Desde a compra inicial com pagamento em dinheiro até o financiamento adicional por meio da emissão de dívida por meio de notas conversíveis e notas garantidas seniores, a estrutura financeira e o balanço patrimonial da MicroStrategy giraram gradualmente em torno do Bitcoin.

In this process, Saylor's strategy is very clear: to use Bitcoin as a means of preserving asset value, enhancing the company's financial strength and market position by continuously increasing its holdings. The company has even proposed a '21/21 plan' aimed at raising $42 billion over the next three years through the issuance of stocks and fixed income instruments to continue expanding its Bitcoin assets and explore new businesses, including crypto banking.

Critics' Concerns: Risks and Financial Dilemmas

Critics argue that MicroStrategy's approach is highly risky, as an over-reliance on volatile assets like Bitcoin could lead to unbearable financial risks. For example, if Bitcoin prices were to plummet dramatically, MicroStrategy's balance sheet would be under immense pressure, potentially affecting its debt repayment ability and exacerbating shareholder equity dilution. David Krause, a finance professor at Marquette University, pointed out that Bitcoin price volatility could lead to shareholder losses, even triggering the company's financial difficulties or bankruptcy. He warned that this 'debt-driven Bitcoin purchasing' model carries risks similar to a Ponzi scheme, as if Bitcoin prices stagnate or collapse, this strategy would be at risk of failure.

Theoretically, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin acquisition strategy forms a self-reinforcing cycle—its Bitcoin asset appreciation drives its stock price up, allowing it to further purchase Bitcoin by issuing more debt or stock. However, if market conditions change abruptly, especially with falling Bitcoin prices, the entire cycle could collapse, leading to disastrous consequences for the company.

Saylor's Response: Long-Term Investment and Strategic Vision

Despite facing significant criticism, Saylor remains convinced that his strategy is correct, viewing his Bitcoin investments as a long-term strategy. 'I have no reason to sell winners,' he has expressed his stance. In media interviews, he has also compared MicroStrategy's strategy to that of Manhattan real estate developers' financing methods. He pointed out that real estate developers expand their assets through debt financing, and MicroStrategy similarly expands its Bitcoin reserves through debt, a model that has been successfully applied globally for over 300 years.

Saylor's conviction was validated when Bitcoin prices soared—since starting to purchase Bitcoin in 2020, MicroStrategy's stock price has skyrocketed by approximately 2200%. In comparison, Bitcoin's increase was about 735%. This has made MicroStrategy a significant player in the Bitcoin market, even entering the Nasdaq 100 index in December 2024.

Supporters' View: The Long-Term Value of Bitcoin

Supporters argue that despite the risks associated with MicroStrategy's strategy, the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin is sufficient to outweigh these risks. Bitcoin is seen as an effective tool for hedging against inflation and economic uncertainty, and holding a substantial amount of Bitcoin can provide financial stability for the company. Additionally, MicroStrategy's convertible debt structure also offers some protection, allowing it to avoid forced liquidation during economic crises.

Gracy Chen, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, pointed out that MicroStrategy's strategy is more about exploiting weaknesses in modern monetary theory to profit from asset appreciation rather than relying on a Ponzi scheme model. She believes that although this strategy carries short-term risks, supported by Bitcoin's long-term value, MicroStrategy can avoid bankruptcy or massive Bitcoin sell-offs through continuous equity financing.

The Risks of Lacking an Exit Strategy

Nonetheless, critics still point out that MicroStrategy lacks a clear exit strategy. How the company will respond to severe market fluctuations during periods of high Bitcoin price volatility, especially in bear markets, remains a pressing issue. Bitcoin extremists believe that Bitcoin itself is the ultimate tool for escaping the traditional financial system, thus making an exit strategy unnecessary.

A stroke of genius or a gamble?

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin debt cycle is undoubtedly a bold and visionary strategy, although it is also fraught with risks. Saylor's approach has garnered praise from supporters who believe that Bitcoin's long-term potential can bring substantial financial returns to MicroStrategy. However, critics argue that this approach overly relies on the price of Bitcoin rising, which could lead the company into trouble if prices fall, potentially facing financial collapse.

Whether a stroke of genius or a risky gamble, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy has undoubtedly sparked discussions about digital assets within the traditional financial system, influencing more and more institutional investors and entrepreneurs to consider how to carve out a place in the crypto market. In the future, market direction will determine the success or failure of this strategy, and whether MicroStrategy can maintain its stability in a volatile market will be a significant point of interest in the field of crypto assets.
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